760
FGUS63 KMSR 241611
ESGKDF
KANKAKEE..DES PLAINES..FOX RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1111 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
NBPI2 18.0 20.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSI2 7.0 9.0 10.0 21 18 6 5 <5 <5
GUNI2 7.0 9.0 11.0 20 20 6 5 <5 <5
LDRI2 12.5 14.0 15.5 17 13 11 8 <5 <5
DSPI2 15.0 18.0 19.0 22 20 7 6 <5 <5
RVFI2 16.0 17.5 18.5 6 6 5 5 <5 <5
RVRI2 7.5 8.0 9.0 15 14 10 8 7 7
LEMI2 10.0 13.0 15.0 33 38 5 5 <5 <5
:WEST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
WRNI2 11.5 14.5 17.5 22 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLI2 20.0 22.0 24.0 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DU PAGE RIVER
NDRI2 12.0 14.0 15.0 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SORI2 15.0 17.0 19.0 27 28 10 12 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
WKEW3 6.0 8.0 10.0 11 10 10 9 6 6
BRGW3 11.0 12.0 14.0 19 17 7 6 <5 <5
NMSW3 11.0 13.0 14.0 51 45 20 18 12 10
AFBI2 9.5 10.5 12.0 30 31 18 18 7 7
MNGI2 13.5 15.0 16.0 12 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
DAYI2 12.0 14.0 24.0 32 36 16 16 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVI3 10.0 12.0 13.0 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:YELLOW RIVER
PYMI3 13.0 14.0 15.0 19 15 7 7 <5 <5
KNXI3 10.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DBRI3 10.0 12.0 13.0 17 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
SLBI3 10.5 11.5 12.5 32 27 15 12 11 9
MOMI2 5.0 6.5 9.0 26 22 15 12 7 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RZLI3 12.0 14.0 15.0 26 28 8 6 7 5
FSMI3 18.0 22.0 24.0 28 28 8 6 <5 <5
IRQI2 18.0 24.0 25.0 42 46 7 6 <5 <5
:SUGAR CREEK
MILI2 18.0 22.0 26.0 56 55 11 11 <5 <5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHBI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WLMI2 6.5 8.0 10.0 17 15 9 7 <5 <5
:MAZON RIVER
COLI2 12.0 16.0 19.0 16 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:VERMILION RIVER
PNTI2 14.0 15.0 18.0 12 12 11 10 <5 <5
LNRI2 16.0 21.0 26.0 25 23 8 8 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404241611/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
NBPI2 12.9/ 13.0/ 13.8/ 14.4/ 15.8/ 16.9/ 17.4
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSI2 3.7/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 5.6/ 6.8/ 7.9/ 9.3
GUNI2 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 5.3/ 6.6/ 8.6/ 9.3
LDRI2 7.5/ 7.7/ 8.3/ 9.4/ 10.8/ 14.2/ 14.9
DSPI2 9.2/ 10.1/ 11.0/ 12.6/ 14.8/ 17.2/ 19.0
RVFI2 6.4/ 7.1/ 8.6/ 10.8/ 12.3/ 14.7/ 17.8
RVRI2 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.8/ 6.0/ 6.7/ 8.0/ 10.3
LEMI2 6.9/ 7.4/ 8.2/ 9.5/ 10.3/ 11.8/ 13.1
:WEST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
WRNI2 8.6/ 8.9/ 9.6/ 10.5/ 11.4/ 11.8/ 12.6
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLI2 16.2/ 16.5/ 17.3/ 18.2/ 18.8/ 19.5/ 20.1
:DU PAGE RIVER
NDRI2 7.7/ 8.2/ 8.8/ 9.8/ 10.6/ 11.4/ 12.1
SORI2 11.0/ 11.5/ 12.7/ 13.5/ 15.1/ 17.0/ 17.8
:FOX RIVER
WKEW3 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.4/ 7.7/ 11.0
BRGW3 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.8/ 9.3/ 10.6/ 11.9/ 12.7
NMSW3 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.9/ 11.0/ 12.8/ 14.2/ 15.4
AFBI2 6.7/ 6.9/ 7.3/ 8.6/ 9.9/ 11.6/ 12.4
MNGI2 11.8/ 11.9/ 12.3/ 12.8/ 13.2/ 13.6/ 14.2
DAYI2 7.1/ 7.4/ 8.8/ 10.5/ 12.7/ 14.8/ 15.9
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVI3 6.7/ 6.7/ 7.2/ 8.0/ 9.0/ 9.9/ 10.7
:YELLOW RIVER
PYMI3 6.3/ 6.6/ 8.2/ 10.1/ 12.2/ 13.7/ 14.4
KNXI3 5.9/ 6.0/ 6.6/ 7.4/ 7.9/ 8.4/ 9.1
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DBRI3 5.4/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 8.3/ 9.3/ 10.3/ 10.7
SLBI3 7.1/ 7.1/ 8.2/ 9.5/ 10.9/ 12.6/ 16.9
MOMI2 2.6/ 2.6/ 3.2/ 3.9/ 5.1/ 8.0/ 9.3
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RZLI3 5.4/ 6.5/ 8.5/ 9.7/ 12.0/ 13.2/ 16.1
FSMI3 8.6/ 11.4/ 13.8/ 15.7/ 18.5/ 20.1/ 22.8
IRQI2 8.6/ 11.3/ 14.1/ 17.3/ 20.8/ 22.9/ 24.7
:SUGAR CREEK
MILI2 9.1/ 10.6/ 15.2/ 18.7/ 20.6/ 22.5/ 23.5
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHBI2 5.4/ 6.9/ 8.8/ 11.0/ 14.4/ 16.0/ 17.8
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WLMI2 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.3/ 4.7/ 5.9/ 7.8/ 8.8
:MAZON RIVER
COLI2 2.8/ 5.1/ 6.8/ 9.8/ 11.6/ 12.9/ 13.8
:VERMILION RIVER
PNTI2 4.6/ 4.9/ 6.7/ 8.3/ 10.7/ 15.5/ 17.6
LNRI2 6.2/ 6.8/ 9.3/ 12.3/ 16.0/ 19.1/ 24.0
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404241611/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:NORTH BRANCH CHICAGO RIVER
NBPI2 11.1/ 11.0/ 10.9/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.7/ 10.7
:DES PLAINES RIVER
RUSI2 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.6
GUNI2 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.0
LDRI2 6.4/ 6.3/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.6
DSPI2 8.3/ 8.1/ 8.0/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.6/ 7.5
RVFI2 3.8/ 3.5/ 3.2/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.1
RVRI2 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4
LEMI2 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.3/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.8
:WEST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
WRNI2 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.3
:EAST BRANCH DU PAGE RIVER
BOLI2 14.4/ 14.4/ 14.3/ 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.1/ 14.1
:DU PAGE RIVER
NDRI2 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.6
SORI2 10.3/ 10.3/ 10.2/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.0/ 10.0
:FOX RIVER
WKEW3 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7
BRGW3 6.9/ 6.9/ 6.6/ 6.4/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2
NMSW3 7.1/ 6.9/ 6.4/ 6.2/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 5.9
AFBI2 5.7/ 5.5/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.6
MNGI2 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.2/ 11.1/ 11.1/ 11.0/ 11.0
DAYI2 6.3/ 6.2/ 5.8/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.1
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVI3 5.8/ 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.0
:YELLOW RIVER
PYMI3 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8
KNXI3 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7
:KANKAKEE RIVER
DBRI3 4.1/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.8
SLBI3 5.6/ 5.4/ 5.1/ 4.8/ 4.5/ 4.2/ 4.1
MOMI2 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4
:IROQUOIS RIVER
RZLI3 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.0/ 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.1
FSMI3 6.6/ 6.2/ 5.8/ 5.3/ 4.8/ 4.5/ 4.1
IRQI2 6.4/ 5.9/ 5.2/ 4.7/ 3.8/ 3.3/ 2.9
:SUGAR CREEK
MILI2 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.2/ 2.8/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9
:IROQUOIS RIVER
CHBI2 4.0/ 3.7/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.5/ 2.4
:KANKAKEE RIVER
WLMI2 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1
:MAZON RIVER
COLI2 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.4/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6
:VERMILION RIVER
PNTI2 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 2.8/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 1.9
LNRI2 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.4/ 3.0/ 2.5
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page