500
FGUS63 KMSR 241656
ESGGND
GRAND..MUSKEGON..WHITE..PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1155 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:GRAND RIVER
JACM4 14.0 15.0 16.0 16 17 6 6 <5 <5
:BUCK CREEK
BUCM4 9.0 10.5 12.0 18 16 6 5 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
ETNM4 6.0 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DMDM4 13.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WMSM4 9.0 10.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ELNM4 7.0 10.0 13.0 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HHTM4 8.0 9.0 10.0 27 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
LNSM4 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GDLM4 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PORM4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGM4 7.0 9.0 11.0 20 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MAPLE RIVER
MRPM4 9.0 11.0 13.0 17 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
IONM4 21.0 23.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FLAT RIVER
SMYM4 8.5 9.5 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
LWLM4 15.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HSTM4 7.0 9.0 10.0 14 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
CLDM4 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
ADAM4 20.0 22.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCM4 8.0 10.0 11.0 10 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
GDRM4 18.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCTM4 5.5 6.5 7.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WHITE RIVER
WHTM4 6.0 7.0 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVRM4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORM4 6.0 7.0 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROM4 9.0 11.0 12.0 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
NEWM4 11.0 14.0 15.0 14 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
BDGM4 13.0 16.0 17.0 12 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404241655/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:GRAND RIVER
JACM4 11.7/ 12.0/ 12.4/ 12.9/ 13.5/ 14.3/ 15.2
:BUCK CREEK
BUCM4 6.0/ 6.6/ 7.1/ 7.8/ 8.6/ 9.3/ 11.6
:GRAND RIVER
ETNM4 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.2
DMDM4 6.0/ 6.1/ 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.6/ 8.6/ 9.8
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WMSM4 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.9/ 6.3/ 6.9/ 7.6/ 8.3
ELNM4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 5.0/ 5.8/ 6.5/ 7.5
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HHTM4 4.0/ 5.5/ 6.5/ 7.2/ 8.2/ 8.8/ 9.0
:GRAND RIVER
LNSM4 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.9/ 6.0/ 7.2/ 8.4/ 10.6
GDLM4 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.9/ 6.5/ 7.0/ 7.8/ 9.1
PORM4 6.6/ 6.8/ 7.1/ 7.8/ 8.8/ 10.0/ 11.2
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGM4 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 7.9/ 9.0
:MAPLE RIVER
MRPM4 4.6/ 5.0/ 5.9/ 7.0/ 8.6/ 9.5/ 10.1
:GRAND RIVER
IONM4 11.3/ 11.7/ 12.8/ 14.9/ 17.9/ 20.2/ 20.7
:FLAT RIVER
SMYM4 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.8/ 5.4/ 6.9/ 7.2
:GRAND RIVER
LWLM4 6.7/ 6.9/ 7.5/ 8.8/ 10.5/ 13.3/ 14.1
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HSTM4 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 6.3/ 7.3/ 8.2
CLDM4 4.0/ 4.2/ 5.0/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 9.0/ 9.9
:GRAND RIVER
ADAM4 9.0/ 9.2/ 10.4/ 12.5/ 15.0/ 17.7/ 18.6
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCM4 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.1/ 5.5/ 6.5/ 7.9/ 8.8
:GRAND RIVER
GDRM4 4.5/ 4.7/ 6.3/ 9.6/ 11.7/ 15.6/ 17.0
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCTM4 1.5/ 1.5/ 2.2/ 2.9/ 3.7/ 4.5/ 4.8
:WHITE RIVER
WHTM4 2.0/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 3.7/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 5.6
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVRM4 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.4/ 8.8/ 9.4/ 10.7/ 11.3
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORM4 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.9/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 4.9
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROM4 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.4/ 7.0/ 7.8/ 8.5/ 9.1
NEWM4 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.9/ 9.4/ 10.4/ 11.2/ 11.9
BDGM4 8.8/ 8.8/ 9.7/ 10.6/ 11.9/ 13.0/ 14.1
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404241655/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:GRAND RIVER
JACM4 9.9/ 9.7/ 9.5/ 9.2/ 9.1/ 8.9/ 8.9
:BUCK CREEK
BUCM4 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4
:GRAND RIVER
ETNM4 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5
DMDM4 5.4/ 5.1/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.4
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WMSM4 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1
ELNM4 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HHTM4 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9
:GRAND RIVER
LNSM4 3.3/ 3.2/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5
GDLM4 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8
PORM4 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGM4 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6
:MAPLE RIVER
MRPM4 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1
:GRAND RIVER
IONM4 10.0/ 9.7/ 9.2/ 8.9/ 8.8/ 8.7/ 8.6
:FLAT RIVER
SMYM4 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2
:GRAND RIVER
LWLM4 6.1/ 5.8/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.9
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HSTM4 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9
CLDM4 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0
:GRAND RIVER
ADAM4 7.6/ 7.2/ 6.6/ 6.1/ 5.9/ 5.7/ 5.5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCM4 4.1/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.7
:GRAND RIVER
GDRM4 3.1/ 2.6/ 2.1/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.2
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCTM4 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7
:WHITE RIVER
WHTM4 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.3
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVRM4 7.3/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.7
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORM4 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROM4 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.5
NEWM4 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.2/ 7.1/ 7.1
BDGM4 7.7/ 7.7/ 7.5/ 7.3/ 7.2/ 7.0/ 7.0
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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