759
FGUS63 KMSR 222107
ESGSSL
SPOON..SANGAMON..LA MOINE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MACKINAW RIVER
CNGI2 13.0 14.0 20.0 11 14 8 12 <5 <5
:SPOON RIVER
LNMI2 15.0 21.0 24.0 30 40 5 5 <5 <5
SEVI2 22.0 25.0 30.0 20 31 11 16 <5 <5
:SANGAMON RIVER
MNTI2 13.0 17.0 20.0 40 48 6 <5 <5 <5
RVTI2 23.0 26.0 29.0 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PETI2 23.0 24.0 33.0 12 18 8 8 <5 <5
:SALT CREEK
GREI2 16.0 17.0 20.0 14 18 10 11 <5 <5
:SANGAMON RIVER
OKFI2 471.0 472.9 478.5 25 33 13 15 <5 <5
CDLI2 456.6 459.0 462.0 35 39 16 17 <5 <5
:LA MOINE RIVER
CLMI2 20.0 22.0 24.0 53 54 38 38 19 22
RIPI2 22.0 23.0 27.0 28 42 27 36 13 13
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504222106/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MACKINAW RIVER
CNGI2 1.4/ 2.3/ 4.2/ 6.2/ 9.9/ 13.5/ 16.1
:SPOON RIVER
LNMI2 3.6/ 4.9/ 6.8/ 11.5/ 16.6/ 18.8/ 21.2
SEVI2 6.5/ 7.7/ 10.2/ 16.1/ 21.6/ 25.3/ 28.0
:SANGAMON RIVER
MNTI2 6.7/ 7.2/ 8.5/ 12.4/ 14.2/ 15.5/ 17.1
RVTI2 8.3/ 8.3/ 10.7/ 16.2/ 19.7/ 22.6/ 23.4
PETI2 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.7/ 13.2/ 19.3/ 23.2/ 25.9
:SALT CREEK
GREI2 2.7/ 3.0/ 5.6/ 8.0/ 13.2/ 17.0/ 19.1
:SANGAMON RIVER
OKFI2 460.0/ 460.0/ 461.7/ 464.9/ 471.1/ 473.3/ 473.8
CDLI2 447.5/ 447.5/ 449.0/ 452.5/ 458.0/ 460.0/ 460.4
:LA MOINE RIVER
CLMI2 6.3/ 10.1/ 14.7/ 20.7/ 23.4/ 25.3/ 26.1
RIPI2 6.8/ 10.5/ 14.0/ 18.4/ 24.8/ 27.2/ 28.1
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504222106/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MACKINAW RIVER
CNGI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SPOON RIVER
LNMI2 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
SEVI2 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SANGAMON RIVER
MNTI2 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
RVTI2 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1
PETI2 1.1/ 1.1/ 0.6/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2
:SALT CREEK
GREI2 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SANGAMON RIVER
OKFI2 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3
CDLI2 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3
:LA MOINE RIVER
CLMI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
RIPI2 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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