279
FGUS63 KMSR 222110
ESGSMW
SAGINAW RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:TOBACCO RIVER
BVTM4 12.0 14.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MPTM4 8.0 11.0 13.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PINE RIVER
ALMM4 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MPRM4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
MIDM4 24.0 25.0 28.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SHIAWASSEE RIVER
OWOM4 7.0 9.0 10.0 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
FRGM4 10.0 14.0 15.0 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KEARSLEY CREEK
DAVM4 10.0 11.0 12.0 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FLINT RIVER
FLTM4 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CASS RIVER
CSSM4 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VSSM4 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FRNM4 17.0 20.0 25.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAGINAW RIVER
SAGM4 17.0 19.0 24.0 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504222109/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:TOBACCO RIVER
BVTM4 2.9/ 2.9/ 4.4/ 5.6/ 6.9/ 7.8/ 8.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MPTM4 3.7/ 3.7/ 4.3/ 4.9/ 5.5/ 6.4/ 6.8
:PINE RIVER
ALMM4 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.6/ 4.0/ 5.1/ 6.2/ 6.4
MPRM4 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 5.9/ 6.6
:TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
MIDM4 10.9/ 11.0/ 13.4/ 15.8/ 18.0/ 22.1/ 23.1
:SHIAWASSEE RIVER
OWOM4 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.2/ 4.0/ 5.3/ 6.8/ 7.6
FRGM4 2.6/ 2.6/ 4.0/ 5.2/ 8.2/ 10.5/ 12.2
:KEARSLEY CREEK
DAVM4 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.8/ 6.3/ 7.9/ 9.6/ 10.3
:FLINT RIVER
FLTM4 5.1/ 5.4/ 5.9/ 7.1/ 8.4/ 10.5/ 12.2
:CASS RIVER
CSSM4 5.3/ 5.9/ 6.6/ 7.6/ 8.6/ 9.7/ 9.9
VSSM4 2.6/ 2.9/ 4.2/ 6.5/ 8.1/ 10.0/ 10.5
FRNM4 5.2/ 5.4/ 7.2/ 10.4/ 14.1/ 16.2/ 16.6
:SAGINAW RIVER
SAGM4 13.2/ 13.2/ 13.4/ 13.5/ 14.3/ 16.0/ 17.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504222109/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:TOBACCO RIVER
BVTM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MPTM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:PINE RIVER
ALMM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
MPRM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
:TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
MIDM4 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3
:SHIAWASSEE RIVER
OWOM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0
FRGM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0
:KEARSLEY CREEK
DAVM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:FLINT RIVER
FLTM4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:CASS RIVER
CSSM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
VSSM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
FRNM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0
:SAGINAW RIVER
SAGM4 2.3/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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