685
FGUS63 KMSR 231316
ESGKBM
KASKASKIA AND BIG MUDDY RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
816 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:KASKASKIA RIVER
VNDI2 18.0 24.0 26.0 55 53 24 23 13 15
KCAI2 16.5 23.0 27.0 >95 56 <5 <5 <5 <5
NASI2 79.0 82.0 85.0 35 36 28 31 13 22
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLMI2 20.0 27.0 34.0 35 28 10 10 <5 <5
MURI2 22.0 28.0 36.0 62 59 31 30 11 13
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231316/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:KASKASKIA RIVER
VNDI2 12.1/ 12.2/ 12.8/ 19.8/ 23.6/ 26.8/ 28.8
KCAI2 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.1/ 18.5/ 21.2/ 21.9
NASI2 71.0/ 71.0/ 71.3/ 73.4/ 82.9/ 90.0/ 92.7
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLMI2 17.6/ 17.6/ 17.7/ 18.4/ 21.1/ 26.8/ 32.2
MURI2 19.7/ 19.7/ 20.1/ 23.3/ 29.0/ 37.7/ 43.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231316/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:KASKASKIA RIVER
VNDI2 0.8/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0
KCAI2 4.0/ 3.6/ 0.5/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLMI2 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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