386
FGUS63 KMSR 231454
ESGWIS
WISCONSIN..TREMPEALEAU..BLACK..LA CROSSE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
954 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCW3 8.0 9.0 10.0 17 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
DDGW3 10.5 11.0 12.0 7 13 <5 8 <5 <5
:BLACK RIVER
NEIW3 18.0 20.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BRFW3 47.0 51.0 55.0 31 28 16 13 <5 <5
GALW3 12.0 13.0 15.0 26 26 16 15 <5 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
ROTW3 25.0 27.0 28.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3 12.0 15.5 17.0 28 31 10 12 <5 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WIRW3 12.0 13.5 14.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:YELLOW RIVER
NCAW3 15.0 16.5 18.0 24 26 8 12 <5 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WDEW3 16.0 17.6 18.9 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
PORW3 17.0 18.0 19.0 26 27 17 13 <5 6
:BARABOO RIVER
RBGW3 14.0 16.0 18.0 38 31 22 22 12 11
RSPW3 18.5 21.0 23.0 35 33 22 23 13 13
BBOW3 9.0 10.5 12.5 14 13 12 12 <5 <5
BABW3 16.0 22.0 23.1 38 35 12 11 7 <5
:BLACK EARTH CREEK
BLEW3 5.5 7.0 8.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSW3 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LAFW3 12.0 13.0 14.0 7 8 6 5 5 <5
VIOW3 14.0 16.0 18.0 20 12 7 8 6 <5
REAW3 11.0 14.0 16.0 31 28 10 9 6 <5
SOGW3 13.0 16.0 19.0 24 24 9 7 <5 <5
GMIW3 13.0 15.0 17.0 42 35 14 14 9 5
STEW3 12.0 13.0 15.0 20 22 15 13 8 5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231454/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCW3 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.2/ 6.4/ 7.6/ 8.3/ 8.4
DDGW3 6.7/ 7.0/ 7.9/ 8.4/ 9.0/ 10.4/ 10.8
:BLACK RIVER
NEIW3 5.9/ 6.1/ 7.6/ 9.1/ 12.0/ 13.5/ 14.7
BRFW3 39.7/ 39.8/ 41.6/ 43.2/ 48.3/ 51.8/ 52.5
GALW3 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.4/ 9.3/ 12.1/ 13.3/ 13.5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3 6.1/ 6.2/ 6.8/ 7.7/ 9.0/ 10.6/ 11.6
ROTW3 16.4/ 16.5/ 17.4/ 18.6/ 20.9/ 23.2/ 24.9
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3 4.9/ 5.0/ 6.5/ 9.7/ 12.6/ 15.5/ 16.6
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WIRW3 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 6.1/ 7.3/ 8.9/ 10.4
:YELLOW RIVER
NCAW3 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.6/ 12.9/ 14.6/ 16.4/ 17.1
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WDEW3 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.5/ 9.6/ 12.6/ 14.1/ 15.8
PORW3 13.7/ 13.7/ 13.7/ 14.9/ 17.6/ 18.2/ 18.8
:BARABOO RIVER
RBGW3 7.5/ 7.5/ 8.7/ 12.1/ 15.7/ 19.9/ 21.7
RSPW3 11.1/ 11.4/ 12.2/ 16.4/ 19.8/ 24.5/ 25.2
BBOW3 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.8/ 5.7/ 6.9/ 11.6/ 12.2
BABW3 9.5/ 9.6/ 10.5/ 14.7/ 17.7/ 22.5/ 23.6
:BLACK EARTH CREEK
BLEW3 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSW3 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 7.3/ 8.1/ 8.4
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LAFW3 4.3/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 6.9/ 9.0/ 11.4/ 14.4
VIOW3 8.7/ 9.0/ 9.7/ 10.4/ 12.9/ 15.5/ 18.7
REAW3 6.2/ 6.2/ 7.5/ 9.3/ 11.6/ 13.8/ 16.5
SOGW3 7.3/ 7.4/ 9.0/ 10.9/ 12.9/ 15.5/ 18.2
GMIW3 8.7/ 8.8/ 9.9/ 12.0/ 13.5/ 16.3/ 18.4
STEW3 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.7/ 9.9/ 11.7/ 14.0/ 16.5
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231454/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
ARCW3 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2
DDGW3 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3
:BLACK RIVER
NEIW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
BRFW3 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
GALW3 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4
:WISCONSIN RIVER
RRLW3 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.2
ROTW3 2.4/ 2.2/ 1.9/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 0.8/ 0.7
:YELLOW RIVER
BBCW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WIRW3 3.3/ 2.8/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1
:YELLOW RIVER
NCAW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WDEW3 4.4/ 4.0/ 3.1/ 2.3/ 1.6/ 1.3/ 1.0
PORW3 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.2/ 1.6/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.7
:BARABOO RIVER
RBGW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
RSPW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
BBOW3 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
BABW3 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:BLACK EARTH CREEK
BLEW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSW3 5.6/ 5.2/ 4.3/ 3.4/ 2.9/ 2.5/ 2.3
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LAFW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
VIOW3 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
REAW3 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
SOGW3 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2
GMIW3 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3
STEW3 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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