977
FGUS63 KMSR 231457
ESGTMO
TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:FOX RIVER
WYLM7 15.0 18.0 20.0 35 31 13 14 <5 <5
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWNM7 11.0 17.0 20.0 43 46 22 22 6 7
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWMM7 12.0 17.0 20.0 42 44 22 22 10 11
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYM7 10.0 14.0 19.0 39 42 19 21 6 6
:NORTH RIVER
PALM7 13.0 16.0 22.0 30 28 15 13 <5 <5
:MIDDLE FORK SALT RIVER
PMZM7 17.0 22.0 26.0 50 42 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SALT RIVER
NLDM7 19.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CUIVRE RIVER
TRYM7 21.0 25.0 29.0 56 52 22 19 7 7
OMNM7 24.0 27.0 30.0 36 52 22 24 5 15
:DARDENNE CREEK
DRCM7 18.0 20.0 23.0 28 28 24 23 5 5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231457/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:FOX RIVER
WYLM7 3.7/ 4.5/ 6.2/ 10.6/ 15.8/ 18.8/ 19.6
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWNM7 4.3/ 5.7/ 7.5/ 10.1/ 16.0/ 19.0/ 20.7
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWMM7 3.4/ 4.8/ 6.9/ 9.8/ 16.1/ 19.9/ 21.3
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYM7 3.8/ 4.9/ 5.7/ 9.2/ 12.5/ 16.8/ 19.1
:NORTH RIVER
PALM7 4.8/ 5.9/ 6.9/ 9.9/ 13.7/ 16.7/ 17.7
:MIDDLE FORK SALT RIVER
PMZM7 6.8/ 8.7/ 11.9/ 16.9/ 19.9/ 20.7/ 22.0
:SALT RIVER
NLDM7 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 10.4/ 11.7/ 13.3/ 14.7
:CUIVRE RIVER
TRYM7 8.7/ 11.5/ 15.7/ 21.9/ 24.8/ 28.4/ 29.3
OMNM7 17.0/ 17.8/ 19.4/ 22.2/ 26.6/ 29.2/ 30.1
:DARDENNE CREEK
DRCM7 2.8/ 3.6/ 8.4/ 11.9/ 19.4/ 22.2/ 23.2
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231457/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:FOX RIVER
WYLM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWNM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWMM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:NORTH RIVER
PALM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:MIDDLE FORK SALT RIVER
PMZM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SALT RIVER
NLDM7 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 0.7/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:CUIVRE RIVER
TRYM7 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
OMNM7 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:DARDENNE CREEK
DRCM7 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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