253
FGUS63 KMSR 231533
ESGMEC
MERAMEC RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1033 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MERAMEC RIVER
SEEM7 12.0 20.0 25.0 34 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
SLLM7 11.0 20.0 29.0 57 44 8 8 <5 <5
:BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNNM7 15.0 22.0 26.0 37 32 8 10 <5 <5
:MERAMEC RIVER
PCFM7 15.0 23.0 27.0 35 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG RIVER
BYRM7 16.0 20.0 28.0 42 38 19 17 <5 <5
:MERAMEC RIVER
ERKM7 19.0 26.0 31.0 28 28 12 12 <5 5
VLLM7 18.0 21.0 27.0 38 41 34 34 9 24
FNNM7 23.0 29.0 32.0 41 48 12 25 6 11
ARNM7 24.0 35.0 38.0 65 79 19 28 13 20
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231533/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MERAMEC RIVER
SEEM7 4.2/ 4.2/ 6.2/ 9.6/ 13.9/ 15.9/ 19.4
SLLM7 7.3/ 7.3/ 9.1/ 12.0/ 16.4/ 19.2/ 21.3
:BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNNM7 5.2/ 5.3/ 8.7/ 13.3/ 16.9/ 21.7/ 23.3
:MERAMEC RIVER
PCFM7 5.2/ 5.3/ 8.2/ 12.9/ 17.1/ 20.8/ 22.6
:BIG RIVER
BYRM7 7.9/ 8.0/ 9.1/ 14.5/ 19.3/ 21.3/ 22.4
:MERAMEC RIVER
ERKM7 8.9/ 9.0/ 11.2/ 16.3/ 21.6/ 26.7/ 30.6
VLLM7 6.2/ 6.8/ 11.2/ 15.6/ 23.4/ 26.4/ 35.6
FNNM7 10.6/ 11.6/ 18.5/ 20.6/ 26.2/ 30.0/ 35.7
ARNM7 13.8/ 16.8/ 21.6/ 26.2/ 32.3/ 38.5/ 41.5
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231533/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MERAMEC RIVER
SEEM7 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
SLLM7 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNNM7 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:MERAMEC RIVER
PCFM7 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5
:BIG RIVER
BYRM7 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1
:MERAMEC RIVER
ERKM7 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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