762
FGUS63 KMSR 231757
ESGTMN
TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER
SABM5 13.0 15.0 19.0 37 32 10 6 <5 <5
:BUFFALO RIVER
HWYM5 8.0 9.0 11.0 17 19 9 11 <5 <5
DILM5 13.0 20.0 26.0 44 47 11 9 <5 <5
:WILD RICE RIVER
TWVM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
HNDM5 20.0 28.0 32.0 27 39 9 14 <5 <5
:MARSH RIVER
SHYM5 14.0 20.0 23.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SAND HILL RIVER
CLXM5 20.0 25.0 30.0 <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5
:RED LAKE RIVER
HIGM5 12.0 12.5 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CRKM5 15.0 20.0 23.0 19 33 <5 10 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
MKLM5 67.0 71.0 75.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALVM5 106.0 108.0 110.0 7 14 <5 10 <5 <5
:TWO RIVERS RIVER
HLLM5 802.0 806.0 810.0 23 38 11 21 <5 <5
:ROSEAU RIVER
ROSM5 16.0 18.0 19.0 5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231756/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER
SABM5 5.7/ 5.7/ 9.4/ 12.2/ 13.4/ 15.0/ 15.4
:BUFFALO RIVER
HWYM5 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 9.0/ 9.8
DILM5 6.2/ 6.2/ 7.6/ 12.5/ 16.2/ 20.1/ 22.3
:WILD RICE RIVER
TWVM5 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 4.5/ 6.8/ 9.4/ 10.2
HNDM5 6.2/ 6.3/ 9.0/ 14.5/ 20.9/ 26.9/ 29.5
:MARSH RIVER
SHYM5 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 6.9/ 10.7/ 12.2/ 13.8
:SAND HILL RIVER
CLXM5 5.2/ 5.6/ 7.1/ 8.4/ 11.8/ 16.1/ 19.6
:RED LAKE RIVER
HIGM5 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.3/ 4.5/ 6.3/ 8.9/ 9.0
CRKM5 5.8/ 5.9/ 7.2/ 9.6/ 14.2/ 17.3/ 19.4
:SNAKE RIVER
MKLM5 61.4/ 61.4/ 61.7/ 62.5/ 63.6/ 64.7/ 66.6
ALVM5 96.8/ 96.8/ 97.3/ 99.0/ 101.7/ 104.3/ 107.5
:TWO RIVERS RIVER
HLLM5 794.1/ 794.8/ 795.9/ 797.7/ 800.5/ 806.6/ 807.7
:ROSEAU RIVER
ROSM5 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.5/ 7.6/ 9.8/ 12.2/ 16.0
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231756/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER
SABM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:BUFFALO RIVER
HWYM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
DILM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WILD RICE RIVER
TWVM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
HNDM5 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:MARSH RIVER
SHYM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SAND HILL RIVER
CLXM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:RED LAKE RIVER
HIGM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
CRKM5 0.8/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1
:SNAKE RIVER
MKLM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
ALVM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:TWO RIVERS RIVER
HLLM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:ROSEAU RIVER
ROSM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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