867
FGUS63 KMSR 231826
ESGTND
TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN NORTH DAKOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SHEYENNE RIVER
VCRN8 15.0 16.0 17.0 <5 9 <5 8 <5 7
LBNN8 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 10 <5 8 <5 6
KNDN8 16.0 19.0 20.5 9 19 <5 9 <5 7
:SHEYENNE RIVER DIVERSION
WFON8 18.0 20.0 21.0 <5 9 <5 8 <5 7
:MAPLE RIVER
ENDN8 9.5 12.0 14.0 16 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
MPLN8 18.0 21.0 23.0 23 28 14 13 <5 <5
:SHEYENNE RIVER
HWDN8 84.0 86.0 91.0 13 20 11 15 <5 8
:GOOSE RIVER
HGRN8 10.0 13.0 16.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOREST RIVER
MTON8 6.0 8.0 11.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PEMBINA RIVER
WLHN8 11.0 16.0 18.0 <5 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
NCEN8 18.0 19.0 20.5 <5 25 <5 22 <5 15
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231825/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SHEYENNE RIVER
VCRN8 4.3/ 4.5/ 5.3/ 6.3/ 8.8/ 11.4/ 12.2
LBNN8 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.9/ 5.2/ 8.5/ 11.4/ 13.4
KNDN8 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 6.6/ 11.2/ 14.7/ 18.1
:SHEYENNE RIVER DIVERSION
WFON8 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 12.9/ 15.0/ 17.6
:MAPLE RIVER
ENDN8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 3.2/ 6.8/ 10.9/ 11.6
MPLN8 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 11.3/ 17.9/ 21.4/ 22.0
:SHEYENNE RIVER
HWDN8 74.1/ 74.1/ 74.1/ 74.1/ 78.0/ 86.7/ 90.0
:GOOSE RIVER
HGRN8 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.5/ 4.2/ 6.2/ 9.1
:FOREST RIVER
MTON8 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 2.0/ 3.5/ 5.2/ 5.7
:PEMBINA RIVER
WLHN8 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 6.2/ 8.1/ 9.0
NCEN8 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 11.3/ 14.9/ 16.6
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231825/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SHEYENNE RIVER
VCRN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
LBNN8 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
KNDN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:SHEYENNE RIVER DIVERSION
WFON8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:MAPLE RIVER
ENDN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
MPLN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SHEYENNE RIVER
HWDN8 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:GOOSE RIVER
HGRN8 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:FOREST RIVER
MTON8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:PEMBINA RIVER
WLHN8 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
NCEN8 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page