816
FGUS63 KMSR 231828
ESGRED
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
128 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:WILD RICE RIVER
ABRN8 20.0 22.0 28.0 27 28 20 18 7 5
:RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
WHNN8 11.0 13.0 15.0 51 63 26 28 5 10
HICN8 30.0 34.0 38.0 16 18 <5 9 <5 <5
FGON8 18.0 25.0 30.0 64 77 22 25 12 17
HILN8 26.0 32.0 37.5 18 23 5 14 <5 7
EGFM5 28.0 40.0 46.0 28 53 6 16 <5 6
OSLM5 26.0 30.0 36.0 32 57 24 50 <5 12
DRTN8 32.0 38.0 42.0 13 41 <5 23 <5 9
PBNN8 39.0 44.0 49.0 16 43 6 35 <5 17
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231828/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WILD RICE RIVER
ABRN8 10.9/ 10.9/ 11.8/ 13.6/ 21.1/ 26.2/ 28.3
:RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
WHNN8 7.4/ 8.1/ 9.2/ 11.0/ 13.2/ 14.2/ 15.3
HICN8 13.9/ 14.8/ 16.6/ 20.9/ 28.0/ 31.1/ 33.1
FGON8 16.1/ 16.4/ 16.9/ 19.7/ 24.2/ 31.5/ 33.4
HILN8 9.9/ 9.9/ 10.9/ 14.1/ 21.0/ 29.2/ 32.4
EGFM5 17.8/ 17.8/ 18.8/ 21.1/ 29.8/ 35.9/ 40.4
OSLM5 11.3/ 11.4/ 14.0/ 18.2/ 29.7/ 33.7/ 34.8
DRTN8 14.2/ 14.2/ 15.8/ 18.6/ 27.4/ 33.9/ 37.6
PBNN8 18.4/ 18.4/ 20.3/ 26.4/ 34.8/ 41.2/ 44.7
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0428 Z DH12 /DC2504231828/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/28/2025 - 07/27/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WILD RICE RIVER
ABRN8 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
WHNN8 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2
HICN8 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2
FGON8 1.4/ 1.1/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3
HILN8 2.3/ 2.1/ 1.5/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.5
EGFM5 3.8/ 3.3/ 2.5/ 1.5/ 1.2/ 0.9/ 0.8
OSLM5 3.8/ 3.4/ 2.6/ 1.5/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.8
DRTN8 4.2/ 3.8/ 2.7/ 1.7/ 1.3/ 1.0/ 0.9
PBNN8 5.3/ 4.4/ 3.3/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.2/ 1.1
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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