632  
FGUS63 KMSR 241940  
ESGSRS  
 
SOURIS RIVER BASIN  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
239 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
:DES LACS RIVER  
DESN8 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOURIS RIVER  
SHWN8 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FOXN8 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MINN8 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MION8 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LGNN8 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SWRN8 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
VLVN8 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WINTERING RIVER  
KLSN8 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOURIS RIVER  
TOWN8 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BANN8 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 <5 13 <5 6 <5 <5  
:WILLOW CREEK  
WLCN8 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOURIS RIVER  
WSTN8 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506241939/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH  
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
:  
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:DES LACS RIVER  
DESN8 1639.1/ 1639.1/ 1639.1/ 1639.1/ 1640.0/ 1641.0/ 1641.8  
:SOURIS RIVER  
SHWN8 1606.3/ 1606.3/ 1606.4/ 1607.4/ 1609.9/ 1611.5/ 1614.0  
FOXN8 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1568.4/ 1570.0/ 1571.0  
MINN8 1550.7/ 1550.7/ 1550.7/ 1550.8/ 1551.8/ 1553.0/ 1554.1  
MION8 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.7/ 1542.2/ 1542.8  
LGNN8 1520.1/ 1520.1/ 1520.1/ 1520.3/ 1523.1/ 1525.2/ 1526.6  
SWRN8 1507.2/ 1507.2/ 1507.2/ 1507.7/ 1509.3/ 1510.8/ 1512.1  
VLVN8 1490.6/ 1490.6/ 1490.6/ 1491.9/ 1492.7/ 1494.0/ 1496.1  
:WINTERING RIVER  
KLSN8 1503.4/ 1503.4/ 1503.4/ 1503.6/ 1504.3/ 1505.0/ 1505.2  
:SOURIS RIVER  
TOWN8 1445.8/ 1445.8/ 1445.8/ 1446.3/ 1447.8/ 1449.6/ 1452.2  
BANN8 1431.6/ 1431.6/ 1431.6/ 1432.1/ 1433.2/ 1435.2/ 1437.7  
:WILLOW CREEK  
WLCN8 1436.5/ 1436.5/ 1436.5/ 1436.9/ 1437.3/ 1438.1/ 1438.8  
:SOURIS RIVER  
WSTN8 1410.6/ 1410.6/ 1410.6/ 1410.6/ 1411.1/ 1412.0/ 1412.8  
.END  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506241939/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH  
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF  
:  
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:DES LACS RIVER  
DESN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:SOURIS RIVER  
SHWN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
FOXN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
MINN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
MION8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
LGNN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
SWRN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
VLVN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:WINTERING RIVER  
KLSN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:SOURIS RIVER  
TOWN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
BANN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:WILLOW CREEK  
WLCN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:SOURIS RIVER  
WSTN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
.END  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF  
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 

 
 
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