081  
FGUS63 KMSR 251229  
ESGDES  
 
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
728 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
AVOM5 1425.0 1426.0 1428.0 11 9 7 7 <5 <5  
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
AGNI4 17.0 18.0 22.0 >95 14 19 <5 <5 <5  
DAKI4 20.0 24.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BOONE RIVER  
WBCI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GRMI4 14.0 16.0 17.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER  
EFWI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PROI4 15.0 18.0 20.0 35 28 17 17 9 10  
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER  
REDI4 20.0 24.0 27.0 8 6 6 <5 <5 <5  
:RACCOON RIVER  
VNMI4 17.0 22.0 23.0 14 14 7 <5 <5 <5  
DMWI4 36.0 38.0 40.0 10 8 6 <5 <5 <5  
DEMI4 12.0 16.0 25.0 35 34 14 15 <5 <5  
:NORTH RIVER  
NRWI4 22.0 25.0 26.0 8 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MIDDLE RIVER  
IDNI4 23.0 26.0 28.0 14 14 9 5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH RIVER  
AKWI4 29.0 30.0 32.0 14 13 13 13 9 10  
:CEDAR CREEK  
BSSI4 25.0 30.0 32.0 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:DES MOINES RIVER  
WDOM5 19.0 21.0 25.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
JCKM5 12.0 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ESVI4 10.0 13.0 14.5 14 12 <5 5 <5 <5  
EMTI4 11.0 13.0 15.0 10 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HBTI4 10.0 13.0 14.0 17 17 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FODI4 10.5 16.0 17.0 18 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
STRI4 19.0 25.0 27.0 21 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DMOI4 23.0 26.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DESI4 24.0 26.0 30.0 26 22 9 9 <5 <5  
EDYI4 63.0 68.0 70.0 10 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OTMI4 11.5 15.0 19.0 20 16 5 8 <5 <5  
KEQI4 22.0 25.0 27.0 11 11 <5 7 <5 6  
SFLM7 18.0 22.0 25.0 26 21 7 8 <5 5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506251228/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH  
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
:  
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
AVOM5 1421.7/ 1421.7/ 1421.7/ 1421.7/ 1422.7/ 1425.6/ 1426.5  
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
AGNI4 17.9/ 17.9/ 17.9/ 17.9/ 18.0/ 18.3/ 18.9  
DAKI4 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.4/ 17.9/ 19.2  
:BOONE RIVER  
WBCI4 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.4/ 9.9/ 12.2/ 14.0  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GRMI4 5.3/ 5.3/ 6.0/ 7.3/ 11.0/ 13.2/ 14.0  
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER  
EFWI4 10.6/ 10.6/ 10.6/ 10.8/ 13.4/ 16.4/ 18.7  
PROI4 13.2/ 13.2/ 13.2/ 13.5/ 15.9/ 19.3/ 22.2  
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER  
REDI4 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 7.5/ 9.4/ 16.7/ 24.1  
:RACCOON RIVER  
VNMI4 9.7/ 9.7/ 9.7/ 10.8/ 13.7/ 19.2/ 22.8  
DMWI4 27.3/ 27.3/ 27.4/ 29.0/ 31.9/ 36.2/ 39.2  
DEMI4 9.5/ 9.5/ 9.6/ 10.9/ 13.1/ 17.3/ 20.2  
:NORTH RIVER  
NRWI4 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.2/ 12.6/ 18.0/ 21.4/ 23.0  
:MIDDLE RIVER  
IDNI4 8.2/ 8.9/ 11.7/ 15.2/ 20.7/ 24.2/ 27.6  
:SOUTH RIVER  
AKWI4 6.1/ 6.5/ 8.1/ 11.9/ 21.8/ 31.9/ 34.1  
:CEDAR CREEK  
BSSI4 4.8/ 5.0/ 6.3/ 9.4/ 15.4/ 26.0/ 27.3  
:DES MOINES RIVER  
WDOM5 14.4/ 14.4/ 14.4/ 14.5/ 15.9/ 18.0/ 18.6  
JCKM5 9.7/ 9.7/ 9.7/ 9.7/ 10.1/ 11.0/ 11.2  
ESVI4 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.9/ 8.2/ 10.9/ 12.2  
EMTI4 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 8.4/ 11.0/ 12.5  
HBTI4 8.9/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 9.2/ 11.4/ 12.2  
FODI4 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.9/ 11.7/ 13.2  
STRI4 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.1/ 17.3/ 21.6/ 23.2  
DMOI4 18.4/ 18.4/ 18.4/ 18.6/ 19.9/ 20.2/ 21.3  
DESI4 21.1/ 21.1/ 21.1/ 21.6/ 24.0/ 25.7/ 28.1  
EDYI4 57.6/ 57.6/ 57.6/ 58.0/ 59.4/ 62.9/ 64.3  
OTMI4 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.6/ 10.9/ 13.4/ 15.4  
KEQI4 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.4/ 17.1/ 18.9/ 22.3/ 23.6  
SFLM7 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.2/ 15.1/ 18.2/ 21.0/ 23.1  
.END  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506251228/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH  
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF  
:  
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
AVOM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
AGNI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
DAKI4 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:BOONE RIVER  
WBCI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GRMI4 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER  
EFWI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1  
PROI4 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2  
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER  
REDI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:RACCOON RIVER  
VNMI4 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2  
DMWI4 1.2/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3  
DEMI4 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3  
:NORTH RIVER  
NRWI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:MIDDLE RIVER  
IDNI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:SOUTH RIVER  
AKWI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:CEDAR CREEK  
BSSI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:DES MOINES RIVER  
WDOM5 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
JCKM5 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
ESVI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0  
EMTI4 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
HBTI4 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1  
FODI4 1.3/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3  
STRI4 1.5/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3  
DMOI4 2.3/ 1.5/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.3/ 0.3  
DESI4 3.4/ 2.5/ 1.9/ 1.3/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.6  
EDYI4 5.4/ 3.2/ 0.7/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3  
OTMI4 5.6/ 3.4/ 1.2/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3  
KEQI4 6.3/ 3.5/ 1.8/ 0.9/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3  
SFLM7 6.6/ 3.6/ 2.2/ 1.3/ 0.6/ 0.4/ 0.3  
.END  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF  
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab RFC Page Main Text Page