295  
FGUS63 KMSR 251719  
ESGCIW  
 
IOWA RIVER BASIN  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1219 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANM5 18.0 20.0 22.0 18 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ASTM5 15.0 18.0 20.0 19 12 7 <5 <5 <5  
:TURTLE CREEK  
TRCM5 10.5 12.0 14.0 15 9 11 7 6 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CCYI4 12.0 15.0 18.0 31 22 25 14 16 9  
JANI4 13.0 15.0 18.0 16 10 9 6 <5 <5  
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER  
FNHI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WINNEBAGO RIVER  
MCWI4 10.0 14.5 15.5 26 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SHELL ROCK RIVER  
SHRI4 12.0 18.0 20.0 >95 24 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
NHRI4 12.5 14.0 15.0 15 13 6 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CEDI4 89.0 92.0 94.0 >95 34 81 17 18 11  
:BLACK HAWK CREEK  
HUDI4 14.0 15.0 19.0 39 32 28 21 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
ALOI4 13.0 19.0 21.0 >95 23 11 <5 <5 <5  
VINI4 15.0 18.0 19.0 47 21 16 <5 <5 <5  
PLOI4 12.5 15.5 17.0 >95 23 14 <5 <5 <5  
CIDI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 >95 24 28 20 21 9  
CEBI4 16.0 20.0 26.0 >95 24 20 7 <5 <5  
CNEI4 13.0 15.0 16.5 >95 38 28 17 7 <5  
:IOWA RIVER  
ROWI4 12.5 15.0 17.0 15 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MIWI4 19.0 23.0 26.0 14 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TMAI4 12.5 13.0 14.0 24 16 17 12 <5 <5  
MROI4 15.0 17.0 19.0 >95 43 43 34 15 10  
IOWI4 23.5 24.5 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALI4 14.0 16.0 18.0 31 34 22 19 13 13  
:IOWA RIVER  
LNTI4 16.0 18.5 22.0 20 21 <5 7 <5 <5  
CJTI4 23.0 25.0 26.5 24 13 5 <5 <5 <5  
WAPI4 21.0 25.0 27.5 >95 26 9 5 <5 <5  
OKVI4 11.0 15.0 20.0 >95 25 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506251719/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH  
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
:  
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANM5 14.4/ 14.4/ 14.4/ 15.0/ 17.1/ 19.0/ 19.9  
ASTM5 8.9/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 9.6/ 14.5/ 17.5/ 19.0  
:TURTLE CREEK  
TRCM5 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.3/ 9.6/ 12.4/ 14.7  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CCYI4 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.4/ 9.3/ 15.0/ 20.7/ 23.1  
JANI4 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.7/ 12.1/ 14.4/ 17.8  
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER  
FNHI4 12.1/ 12.2/ 12.2/ 12.3/ 13.5/ 15.7/ 16.6  
:WINNEBAGO RIVER  
MCWI4 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 10.4/ 11.9/ 13.2  
:SHELL ROCK RIVER  
SHRI4 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 13.7/ 15.3/ 16.4  
:BEAVER CREEK  
NHRI4 4.2/ 4.5/ 6.8/ 10.3/ 11.6/ 13.0/ 14.5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CEDI4 92.0/ 92.0/ 92.0/ 92.0/ 92.9/ 96.0/ 96.9  
:BLACK HAWK CREEK  
HUDI4 7.9/ 8.5/ 10.6/ 13.1/ 15.4/ 16.1/ 17.5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
ALOI4 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.7/ 19.3/ 20.1  
VINI4 14.9/ 14.9/ 15.0/ 15.0/ 15.6/ 18.5/ 19.0  
PLOI4 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.6/ 15.8/ 16.0  
CIDI4 13.3/ 13.3/ 13.4/ 13.4/ 14.5/ 18.4/ 18.9  
CEBI4 16.6/ 16.6/ 16.6/ 16.6/ 18.2/ 21.3/ 21.6  
CNEI4 14.6/ 14.6/ 14.6/ 14.7/ 15.2/ 16.4/ 16.8  
:IOWA RIVER  
ROWI4 10.9/ 10.9/ 10.9/ 11.0/ 11.7/ 13.5/ 14.8  
MIWI4 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.1/ 18.1/ 19.4/ 19.6  
TMAI4 11.7/ 11.7/ 11.7/ 11.8/ 12.4/ 13.2/ 13.6  
MROI4 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.8/ 18.1/ 19.3/ 19.6  
IOWI4 17.4/ 17.4/ 17.5/ 18.5/ 19.2/ 20.4/ 21.7  
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALI4 4.5/ 4.5/ 6.5/ 11.0/ 15.4/ 19.1/ 20.2  
:IOWA RIVER  
LNTI4 11.5/ 11.5/ 11.6/ 12.9/ 15.5/ 17.4/ 18.5  
CJTI4 20.9/ 20.9/ 21.0/ 21.1/ 22.8/ 24.5/ 25.1  
WAPI4 21.8/ 21.8/ 21.8/ 21.9/ 23.2/ 24.7/ 25.5  
OKVI4 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.5/ 12.7/ 14.2/ 15.0  
.END  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506251719/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH  
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF  
:  
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
ASTM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:TURTLE CREEK  
TRCM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CCYI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2  
JANI4 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4  
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER  
FNHI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2  
:WINNEBAGO RIVER  
MCWI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:SHELL ROCK RIVER  
SHRI4 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
NHRI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CEDI4 2.5/ 2.4/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2  
:BLACK HAWK CREEK  
HUDI4 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:CEDAR RIVER  
ALOI4 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3  
VINI4 3.5/ 2.9/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5  
PLOI4 3.6/ 3.0/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6  
CIDI4 3.7/ 3.0/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.6  
CEBI4 3.9/ 3.1/ 2.6/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7  
CNEI4 4.1/ 3.4/ 2.8/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.7  
:IOWA RIVER  
ROWI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
MIWI4 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4  
TMAI4 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5  
MROI4 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6  
IOWI4 1.2/ 0.7/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:IOWA RIVER  
LNTI4 1.4/ 1.2/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2  
CJTI4 5.7/ 5.1/ 3.7/ 3.0/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0  
WAPI4 5.9/ 5.2/ 3.8/ 3.1/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0  
OKVI4 6.0/ 5.3/ 3.8/ 3.2/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0  
.END  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF  
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 
 
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