685  
FGUS63 KMSR 252031  
ESGRCK  
 
ROCK RIVER BASIN  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
331 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
:ROCK RIVER  
WATW3 5.5 6.0 6.5 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CRAWFISH RIVER  
MILW3 7.0 9.0 10.0 11 12 6 <5 <5 <5  
:ROCK RIVER  
JFFW3 10.0 11.0 13.0 11 11 10 9 <5 <5  
FATW3 16.0 17.0 18.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NVLW3 10.0 11.0 11.5 10 14 6 10 5 8  
AFTW3 9.0 11.1 12.2 13 17 <5 7 <5 5  
:TURTLE CREEK  
CLIW3 8.0 11.0 12.0 17 18 <5 9 <5 <5  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
DARW3 13.5 15.0 16.0 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER  
BCHW3 11.0 14.0 16.0 13 13 6 7 <5 <5  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
MTNW3 13.5 18.0 21.0 13 16 <5 <5 <5 <5  
FEEI2 13.0 14.0 16.0 13 16 8 12 <5 <5  
:SUGAR RIVER  
ALBW3 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BROW3 5.0 8.0 10.0 15 21 10 11 <5 <5  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
SIRI2 12.0 14.0 15.5 13 19 <5 9 <5 <5  
:ROCK RIVER  
ROKI2 10.0 11.0 14.0 9 15 7 12 <5 7  
LATI2 9.0 11.0 13.5 9 16 5 11 <5 6  
RABI2 6.0 8.5 10.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
BVDI2 9.0 10.0 12.0 7 11 <5 6 <5 <5  
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
DEKI2 10.0 11.0 12.5 7 9 6 7 <5 <5  
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
PRYI2 12.0 18.0 22.0 13 18 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROCK RIVER  
BYRI2 13.0 14.0 16.0 6 15 <5 11 <5 6  
DXRI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CMOI2 12.5 15.5 18.0 10 17 <5 7 <5 <5  
JOSI2 12.0 14.0 16.5 16 28 12 24 6 12  
:GREEN RIVER  
GENI2 15.0 16.5 18.0 <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5  
:ROCK RIVER  
MLII2 12.0 13.0 14.0 14 28 10 22 8 16  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506252031/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH  
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
:  
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:ROCK RIVER  
WATW3 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.3/ 3.2/ 5.0/ 5.6  
:CRAWFISH RIVER  
MILW3 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 7.5/ 9.1  
:ROCK RIVER  
JFFW3 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 10.8/ 12.1  
FATW3 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.6/ 12.1/ 13.0/ 15.4/ 16.2  
NVLW3 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 7.5/ 10.3/ 11.5  
AFTW3 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 9.6/ 11.0  
:TURTLE CREEK  
CLIW3 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 4.7/ 6.1/ 8.6/ 9.7  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
DARW3 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.6/ 7.6/ 11.3/ 14.3  
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER  
BCHW3 4.6/ 4.7/ 5.5/ 7.7/ 10.2/ 11.8/ 14.7  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
MTNW3 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.6/ 7.8/ 10.0/ 15.0/ 16.4  
FEEI2 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.4/ 7.4/ 10.8/ 13.5/ 14.3  
:SUGAR RIVER  
ALBW3 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 5.6/ 6.7/ 10.2/ 11.2  
BROW3 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.4/ 2.3/ 3.4/ 7.9/ 8.6  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
SIRI2 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.6/ 7.1/ 9.8/ 12.4/ 14.0  
:ROCK RIVER  
ROKI2 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.4/ 7.3/ 9.2/ 12.1  
LATI2 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.9/ 5.3/ 6.7/ 8.3/ 11.4  
RABI2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.9/ 5.2  
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
BVDI2 1.6/ 2.0/ 2.6/ 3.8/ 5.6/ 7.5/ 9.1  
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
DEKI2 3.2/ 3.4/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 6.1/ 8.1/ 11.3  
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
PRYI2 5.8/ 5.9/ 6.8/ 8.1/ 9.9/ 12.1/ 16.6  
:ROCK RIVER  
BYRI2 5.9/ 6.1/ 6.5/ 7.8/ 9.4/ 12.3/ 13.3  
DXRI2 8.5/ 8.6/ 9.0/ 10.0/ 11.3/ 14.7/ 16.0  
CMOI2 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 5.7/ 7.6/ 12.5/ 14.0  
JOSI2 5.4/ 5.5/ 6.1/ 7.8/ 10.6/ 14.9/ 17.0  
:GREEN RIVER  
GENI2 2.4/ 2.9/ 3.8/ 5.5/ 7.8/ 12.1/ 13.4  
:ROCK RIVER  
MLII2 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.6/ 9.4/ 10.7/ 13.0/ 15.0  
.END  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506252031/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH  
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF  
:  
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:ROCK RIVER  
WATW3 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:CRAWFISH RIVER  
MILW3 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:ROCK RIVER  
JFFW3 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2  
FATW3 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3  
AFTW3 1.2/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6  
:TURTLE CREEK  
CLIW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
DARW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER  
BCHW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
MTNW3 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4  
FEEI2 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4  
:SUGAR RIVER  
ALBW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2  
BROW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
SIRI2 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7  
:ROCK RIVER  
ROKI2 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5  
LATI2 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.5  
RABI2 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5  
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
BVDI2 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:SOUTH BRANCH KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
DEKI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:KISHWAUKEE RIVER  
PRYI2 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:ROCK RIVER  
BYRI2 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.7/ 1.7  
DXRI2 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.9  
CMOI2 3.3/ 3.1/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.9  
JOSI2 3.5/ 3.2/ 2.9/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 2.0  
:GREEN RIVER  
GENI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0  
:ROCK RIVER  
MLII2 3.9/ 3.6/ 3.1/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.1  
.END  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF  
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 

 
 
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