989  
FGUS63 KMSR 260213  
ESGMEN  
 
MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
913 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...  
VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES  
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----  
:MICHIGAMME RIVER  
WLKM4 9.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PAINT RIVER  
CRYM4 7.0 8.0 9.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MENOMINEE RIVER  
FLOW3 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NIAW3 13.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
VLCM4 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MCAW3 15.0 18.0 19.0 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506260213/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH  
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF  
:  
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MICHIGAMME RIVER  
WLKM4 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 6.0  
:PAINT RIVER  
CRYM4 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.9/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 5.7  
:MENOMINEE RIVER  
FLOW3 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.3/ 6.6/ 7.7/ 8.2  
NIAW3 6.6/ 6.6/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 9.2/ 10.7/ 11.7  
VLCM4 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.9/ 7.6/ 9.3/ 11.4/ 13.1  
MCAW3 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.3/ 10.9/ 12.3/ 13.9/ 15.2  
.END  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY  
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...  
 
.B MSR 0630 Z DH12 /DC2506260213/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH  
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF  
:  
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
: VALID PERIOD: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025  
:  
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MICHIGAMME RIVER  
WLKM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1  
:PAINT RIVER  
CRYM4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3  
:MENOMINEE RIVER  
FLOW3 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5  
NIAW3 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9  
VLCM4 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.4/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1  
MCAW3 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8  
.END  
 
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF  
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.  
 
 
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