181
FGUS63 KMSR 261317
ESGDES
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
816 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
AVOM5 1425.0 1426.0 1428.0 7 6 7 6 <5 <5
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
AGNI4 17.0 18.0 22.0 10 6 8 <5 <5 <5
DAKI4 20.0 24.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BOONE RIVER
WBCI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK
GRMI4 14.0 16.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
EFWI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PROI4 15.0 18.0 20.0 12 17 <5 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDI4 20.0 24.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RACCOON RIVER
VNMI4 17.0 22.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DMWI4 36.0 38.0 40.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DEMI4 12.0 16.0 25.0 20 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH RIVER
NRWI4 22.0 25.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MIDDLE RIVER
IDNI4 23.0 26.0 28.0 11 10 6 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH RIVER
AKWI4 29.0 30.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CREEK
BSSI4 25.0 30.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:DES MOINES RIVER
WDOM5 19.0 21.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
JCKM5 12.0 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ESVI4 10.0 13.0 14.5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
EMTI4 11.0 13.0 15.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HBTI4 10.0 13.0 14.0 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
FODI4 10.5 16.0 17.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
STRI4 19.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DMOI4 23.0 26.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DESI4 24.0 26.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
EDYI4 63.0 68.0 70.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
OTMI4 11.5 15.0 19.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
KEQI4 22.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SFLM7 18.0 22.0 25.0 16 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261316/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
AVOM5 1419.4/ 1419.4/ 1419.4/ 1419.4/ 1419.9/ 1423.0/ 1427.4
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
AGNI4 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.7/ 10.8/ 14.3/ 16.9/ 18.8
DAKI4 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 11.7/ 15.7/ 17.0
:BOONE RIVER
WBCI4 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.5/ 4.7/ 6.9/ 8.8/ 11.5
:BEAVER CREEK
GRMI4 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.7/ 6.4/ 7.9/ 9.7/ 10.9
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
EFWI4 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 7.5/ 10.2/ 12.8/ 15.2
PROI4 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 8.8/ 12.8/ 15.8/ 17.9
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDI4 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.6/ 5.4/ 7.4/ 10.3/ 13.1
:RACCOON RIVER
VNMI4 4.4/ 4.4/ 5.2/ 7.5/ 12.1/ 14.2/ 15.5
DMWI4 22.1/ 22.1/ 22.9/ 25.4/ 30.3/ 33.0/ 34.2
DEMI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.4/ 7.1/ 11.7/ 13.6/ 14.5
:NORTH RIVER
NRWI4 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 7.5/ 10.6/ 14.3/ 16.5
:MIDDLE RIVER
IDNI4 7.8/ 9.3/ 13.3/ 14.7/ 17.7/ 23.5/ 26.4
:SOUTH RIVER
AKWI4 6.1/ 6.3/ 7.5/ 10.4/ 13.6/ 23.3/ 25.6
:CEDAR CREEK
BSSI4 5.3/ 5.3/ 6.5/ 8.4/ 11.6/ 16.3/ 22.8
:DES MOINES RIVER
WDOM5 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.3/ 11.3/ 12.4/ 15.2/ 18.5
JCKM5 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.9/ 9.8/ 11.1
ESVI4 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.3/ 4.9/ 7.4/ 10.9
EMTI4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 3.0/ 5.6/ 8.7/ 11.5
HBTI4 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 6.1/ 8.4/ 9.9/ 11.3
FODI4 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 6.0/ 8.1/ 9.9/ 11.1
STRI4 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 9.5/ 13.2/ 16.9/ 18.8
DMOI4 14.9/ 14.9/ 14.9/ 16.0/ 18.2/ 19.2/ 19.8
DESI4 12.9/ 12.9/ 12.9/ 16.2/ 19.4/ 23.6/ 24.0
EDYI4 53.6/ 53.6/ 53.6/ 54.3/ 57.5/ 59.2/ 60.3
OTMI4 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 6.1/ 8.3/ 10.2/ 12.2
KEQI4 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.0/ 14.5/ 17.3/ 19.1/ 21.2
SFLM7 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.1/ 12.6/ 15.9/ 18.5/ 20.4
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261316/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
AVOM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER
AGNI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
DAKI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:BOONE RIVER
WBCI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:BEAVER CREEK
GRMI4 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER
EFWI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
PROI4 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER
REDI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:RACCOON RIVER
VNMI4 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4
DMWI4 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4
DEMI4 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
:NORTH RIVER
NRWI4 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:MIDDLE RIVER
IDNI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOUTH RIVER
AKWI4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:CEDAR CREEK
BSSI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:DES MOINES RIVER
WDOM5 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
JCKM5 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
ESVI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
EMTI4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
HBTI4 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
FODI4 1.3/ 1.2/ 0.9/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4
STRI4 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6
DMOI4 1.6/ 1.2/ 0.7/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3
DESI4 2.8/ 2.3/ 1.5/ 1.1/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7
EDYI4 3.2/ 2.8/ 1.9/ 1.0/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4
OTMI4 3.3/ 2.8/ 1.9/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4
KEQI4 3.5/ 3.2/ 2.0/ 1.1/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4
SFLM7 3.6/ 3.4/ 2.1/ 1.2/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.5
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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