920
FGUS63 KMSR 261452
ESGEWS
EASTERN TRIBUTARIES TO LAKE MICHIGAN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
952 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3 9.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3 11.5 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SHIW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
NEWW3 9.0 10.5 11.1 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3 5.0 8.0 10.0 12 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3 6.0 7.5 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
PCNW3 9.5 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BERW3 13.0 14.5 16.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
APLW3 8.4 9.0 10.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SEBW3 8.0 10.0 12.0 9 7 5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
FRKW3 8.0 10.0 12.0 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYW3 9.0 11.0 12.0 10 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
RACW3 7.0 7.5 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CREEK
CDRW3 10.0 11.0 12.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDW3 11.0 13.0 14.0 10 6 7 <5 6 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261452/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.4/ 5.9/ 6.5/ 7.5/ 7.8
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3 7.8/ 7.9/ 8.2/ 8.4/ 8.7/ 9.0/ 9.4
SHIW3 3.3/ 4.1/ 5.4/ 6.5/ 8.0/ 10.0/ 10.6
NEWW3 2.6/ 3.1/ 4.8/ 6.2/ 7.5/ 8.8/ 9.2
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3 1.4/ 1.8/ 2.4/ 3.1/ 3.9/ 5.6/ 6.1
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.3/ 3.0/ 4.2/ 5.1/ 5.5
:FOX RIVER
PCNW3 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 6.6/ 8.3/ 9.3
BERW3 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.2/ 10.4/ 12.0/ 13.0
APLW3 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.0/ 6.2/ 6.7/ 7.8/ 7.9
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SEBW3 2.0/ 2.4/ 2.8/ 3.7/ 5.4/ 7.5/ 10.8
:ROOT RIVER
FRKW3 2.5/ 2.5/ 3.8/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 8.0/ 8.4
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYW3 2.7/ 2.9/ 3.8/ 5.7/ 7.7/ 9.1/ 10.0
:ROOT RIVER
RACW3 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.1/ 4.9/ 5.5/ 6.3
:CEDAR CREEK
CDRW3 5.7/ 5.8/ 6.2/ 6.8/ 7.6/ 8.9/ 10.1
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDW3 6.1/ 6.2/ 6.7/ 7.8/ 9.4/ 10.8/ 14.0
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261452/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:OCONTO RIVER
OCTW3 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3
:WOLF RIVER
LGLW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
SHIW3 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.7
NEWW3 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.0/ 1.0
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER
ROYW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:WAUPACA RIVER
WPCW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:FOX RIVER
PCNW3 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
BERW3 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6
APLW3 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SEBW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
:ROOT RIVER
FRKW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:ROOT RIVER
RACW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:CEDAR CREEK
CDRW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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