210
FGUS63 KMSR 261500
ESGSMS
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
959 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CLINTON RIVER
FSRM4 16.0 17.0 19.0 7 8 5 6 <5 <5
:NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
MCLM4 15.0 16.0 18.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CLINTON RIVER
MTCM4 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RIVER ROUGE
DETM4 15.0 18.0 20.0 11 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE
GACM4 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LOWER ROUGE RIVER
DLRM4 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MILL CREEK
DEXM4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:HURON RIVER
HMGM4 7.0 7.5 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ANNM4 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RIVER RAISIN
TECM4 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ADRM4 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLIM4 683.0 685.0 687.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DNDM4 650.0 652.0 653.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MONM4 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261459/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CLINTON RIVER
FSRM4 8.4/ 9.0/ 10.1/ 12.2/ 14.0/ 15.6/ 17.4
:NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
MCLM4 4.6/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 8.8/ 11.1/ 12.6/ 15.8
:CLINTON RIVER
MTCM4 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.3/ 8.7/ 9.8/ 11.1/ 15.0
:RIVER ROUGE
DETM4 8.5/ 9.3/ 10.2/ 12.2/ 13.4/ 15.0/ 16.6
:MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE
GACM4 4.4/ 5.0/ 6.7/ 7.8/ 8.7/ 9.4/ 9.9
:LOWER ROUGE RIVER
DLRM4 4.0/ 4.2/ 5.1/ 5.9/ 7.5/ 8.5/ 9.0
:MILL CREEK
DEXM4 5.7/ 6.2/ 7.3/ 8.1/ 9.0/ 9.7/ 10.3
:HURON RIVER
HMGM4 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 6.0/ 6.7
ANNM4 12.3/ 12.6/ 12.9/ 13.3/ 13.7/ 14.5/ 14.7
:RIVER RAISIN
TECM4 4.7/ 5.5/ 7.1/ 8.0/ 8.7/ 9.2/ 9.6
ADRM4 4.3/ 5.4/ 7.7/ 9.1/ 10.6/ 11.3/ 11.9
BLIM4 675.4/ 675.8/ 676.7/ 677.7/ 679.2/ 680.0/ 680.6
DNDM4 637.7/ 638.6/ 640.0/ 641.3/ 643.0/ 644.4/ 645.1
MONM4 4.2/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 6.8/ 7.3/ 7.6/ 8.0
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261459/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CLINTON RIVER
FSRM4 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
MCLM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:CLINTON RIVER
MTCM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:RIVER ROUGE
DETM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:MIDDLE RIVER ROUGE
GACM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:LOWER ROUGE RIVER
DLRM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:MILL CREEK
DEXM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:HURON RIVER
HMGM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
ANNM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:RIVER RAISIN
TECM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
ADRM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
BLIM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
DNDM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
MONM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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