478
FGUS63 KMSR 261541
ESGILO
ILLINOIS RIVER
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1041 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORI2 16.0 18.0 22.0 11 12 11 11 8 5
OTWI2 463.0 467.0 471.0 12 12 10 7 <5 <5
LSLI2 20.0 27.0 31.0 22 24 11 8 <5 <5
HNYI2 23.0 24.0 31.0 14 13 12 12 <5 <5
PIAI2 18.0 22.0 28.0 15 22 8 9 <5 <5
PRAI2 447.0 449.0 455.0 12 12 10 10 <5 <5
HAVI2 14.0 17.0 23.0 27 37 12 18 7 6
BEAI2 14.0 18.0 28.0 21 26 12 15 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261541/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORI2 5.3/ 5.4/ 6.0/ 8.6/ 11.2/ 20.2/ 22.8
OTWI2 458.6/ 458.6/ 458.8/ 459.3/ 460.2/ 467.7/ 469.8
LSLI2 11.6/ 11.9/ 12.5/ 15.6/ 19.1/ 28.8/ 30.2
HNYI2 15.0/ 15.1/ 15.6/ 16.6/ 19.3/ 24.6/ 27.5
PIAI2 12.0/ 12.2/ 12.6/ 13.1/ 14.2/ 21.2/ 24.1
PRAI2 432.0/ 433.1/ 434.8/ 436.2/ 441.5/ 448.8/ 451.3
HAVI2 5.0/ 5.7/ 7.3/ 11.2/ 14.4/ 18.9/ 25.6
BEAI2 9.4/ 9.8/ 10.1/ 11.0/ 13.0/ 19.4/ 24.9
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261541/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ILLINOIS RIVER
MORI2 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2
LSLI2 3.7/ 3.3/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.8
HNYI2 3.7/ 3.3/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7
PIAI2 3.8/ 3.4/ 2.6/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.7
PRAI2 3.9/ 3.4/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.8
HAVI2 4.3/ 3.9/ 2.9/ 2.5/ 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.0
BEAI2 4.9/ 4.4/ 3.3/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.2
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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