278
FGUS63 KMSR 261642
ESGCIW
IOWA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CEDAR RIVER
LANM5 18.0 20.0 22.0 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
ASTM5 15.0 18.0 20.0 11 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:TURTLE CREEK
TRCM5 10.5 12.0 14.0 9 7 7 6 <5 <5
:CEDAR RIVER
CCYI4 12.0 15.0 18.0 14 13 12 11 9 8
JANI4 13.0 15.0 18.0 10 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FNHI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MCWI4 10.0 14.5 15.5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHRI4 12.0 18.0 20.0 22 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CREEK
NHRI4 12.5 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDI4 89.0 92.0 94.0 28 16 12 9 8 6
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDI4 14.0 15.0 19.0 17 14 9 7 <5 <5
:CEDAR RIVER
ALOI4 13.0 19.0 21.0 17 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
VINI4 15.0 18.0 19.0 11 8 5 <5 <5 <5
PLOI4 12.5 15.5 17.0 14 8 5 <5 <5 <5
CIDI4 12.0 14.0 16.0 17 9 10 7 7 <5
CEBI4 16.0 20.0 26.0 12 8 6 <5 <5 <5
CNEI4 13.0 15.0 16.5 37 22 11 7 <5 <5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWI4 12.5 15.0 17.0 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
MIWI4 19.0 23.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
TMAI4 12.5 13.0 14.0 7 6 6 <5 <5 <5
MROI4 15.0 17.0 19.0 22 22 12 10 <5 <5
IOWI4 23.5 24.5 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALI4 14.0 16.0 18.0 35 31 16 18 5 <5
:IOWA RIVER
LNTI4 16.0 18.5 22.0 11 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
CJTI4 23.0 25.0 26.5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WAPI4 21.0 25.0 27.5 23 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
OKVI4 11.0 15.0 20.0 19 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261642/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CEDAR RIVER
LANM5 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.7/ 13.4/ 15.3/ 17.5/ 19.5
ASTM5 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 7.2/ 10.4/ 16.5/ 19.0
:TURTLE CREEK
TRCM5 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.8/ 6.7/ 10.2/ 13.6
:CEDAR RIVER
CCYI4 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.3/ 5.6/ 9.1/ 15.5/ 24.0
JANI4 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 4.7/ 7.6/ 12.8/ 16.0
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FNHI4 8.2/ 8.2/ 9.4/ 10.8/ 12.1/ 14.0/ 16.3
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MCWI4 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.8/ 8.6/ 10.6/ 12.6
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHRI4 9.7/ 9.7/ 9.7/ 10.2/ 11.8/ 13.4/ 15.6
:BEAVER CREEK
NHRI4 2.2/ 2.4/ 4.0/ 5.9/ 9.4/ 10.7/ 11.9
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDI4 81.7/ 81.7/ 81.7/ 85.0/ 90.1/ 93.3/ 95.5
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDI4 6.1/ 6.5/ 7.9/ 10.2/ 13.2/ 14.9/ 15.7
:CEDAR RIVER
ALOI4 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 8.7/ 11.9/ 15.2/ 18.4
VINI4 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.9/ 9.1/ 12.9/ 15.4/ 18.1
PLOI4 5.8/ 5.8/ 6.1/ 8.3/ 11.4/ 13.2/ 15.5
CIDI4 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.9/ 7.5/ 11.4/ 13.9/ 18.0
CEBI4 7.1/ 7.1/ 8.0/ 10.1/ 14.0/ 17.4/ 21.0
CNEI4 8.5/ 8.5/ 9.2/ 11.4/ 13.6/ 15.2/ 16.5
:IOWA RIVER
ROWI4 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.6/ 8.5/ 11.3/ 14.2
MIWI4 11.7/ 11.7/ 11.9/ 13.6/ 15.6/ 17.3/ 18.6
TMAI4 4.4/ 4.4/ 5.2/ 7.4/ 10.3/ 11.8/ 13.0
MROI4 8.6/ 8.6/ 9.7/ 12.7/ 14.8/ 17.2/ 17.6
IOWI4 11.0/ 11.2/ 12.3/ 15.0/ 18.9/ 19.5/ 19.8
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALI4 5.2/ 6.1/ 8.9/ 12.3/ 14.6/ 17.0/ 18.4
:IOWA RIVER
LNTI4 5.9/ 6.9/ 8.6/ 10.5/ 14.1/ 16.2/ 18.0
CJTI4 12.7/ 12.7/ 13.3/ 16.3/ 19.6/ 21.8/ 24.5
WAPI4 15.1/ 15.1/ 15.2/ 17.9/ 20.8/ 22.6/ 24.9
OKVI4 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 7.7/ 10.4/ 12.3/ 14.4
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508261642/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CEDAR RIVER
LANM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
ASTM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:TURTLE CREEK
TRCM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:CEDAR RIVER
CCYI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2
JANI4 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER
FNHI4 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:WINNEBAGO RIVER
MCWI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHRI4 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
:BEAVER CREEK
NHRI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:CEDAR RIVER
CEDI4 2.6/ 2.4/ 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2
:BLACK HAWK CREEK
HUDI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:CEDAR RIVER
ALOI4 2.9/ 2.6/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3
VINI4 3.7/ 3.0/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.5
PLOI4 3.8/ 3.1/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.6
CIDI4 3.9/ 3.2/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.6
CEBI4 4.1/ 3.5/ 2.5/ 2.2/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7
CNEI4 4.7/ 3.8/ 2.9/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.7
:IOWA RIVER
ROWI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
MIWI4 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
TMAI4 1.1/ 1.0/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
MROI4 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.1/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7
IOWI4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALI4 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:IOWA RIVER
LNTI4 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
CJTI4 6.3/ 5.5/ 4.3/ 3.4/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.4
WAPI4 6.5/ 5.6/ 4.4/ 3.5/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.5
OKVI4 6.7/ 5.6/ 4.4/ 3.5/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.5
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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