395
FGUS63 KMSR 271222
ESGM10
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
721 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
RCHM5 14.0 18.0 20.0 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMM5 18.0 24.0 26.0 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LNSM5 12.0 16.0 18.0 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUM5 15.0 17.0 18.0 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
BLFI4 14.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DEHI4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DCHI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 9 8 6 <5 <5 <5
:TURKEY RIVER
SPLI4 9.0 11.0 13.0 16 13 13 8 10 6
EKDI4 12.0 16.0 20.0 12 7 6 5 <5 <5
GRBI4 17.0 20.0 23.0 9 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LKCM5 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WABM5 12.0 14.0 16.0 11 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALMW3 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MSCM5 660.0 662.0 665.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WIDM5 655.0 659.0 661.0 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WNAM5 13.0 15.0 18.0 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
TREW3 647.0 649.0 651.0 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LCRM5 641.0 643.0 645.0 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
LACW3 12.0 13.0 15.5 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
GENW3 631.0 634.0 636.0 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
LNSI4 17.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LYNW3 625.0 628.0 631.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MCGI4 16.0 19.0 22.0 12 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
GTTI4 15.0 18.0 21.0 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508271221/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
RCHM5 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.6/ 4.6/ 6.0/ 10.6/ 15.9
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMM5 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.8/ 7.4/ 10.1/ 14.4/ 22.8
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LNSM5 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 6.7/ 11.8/ 14.8
:ROOT RIVER
HOUM5 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 9.7/ 14.1/ 16.4
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
BLFI4 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.2/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 8.4/ 10.7
DEHI4 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.2/ 4.5/ 7.2/ 9.1
DCHI4 7.7/ 7.7/ 8.1/ 9.2/ 11.2/ 13.1/ 17.8
:TURKEY RIVER
SPLI4 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.6/ 4.5/ 6.1/ 13.1/ 14.7
EKDI4 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.7/ 7.8/ 10.4/ 12.6/ 16.6
GRBI4 7.2/ 7.5/ 8.3/ 10.3/ 13.2/ 16.8/ 19.3
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LKCM5 8.8/ 8.8/ 8.8/ 8.9/ 12.3/ 14.1/ 15.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WABM5 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 11.1/ 12.2/ 13.4
ALMW3 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 9.2/ 11.0/ 12.6
MSCM5 652.9/ 652.9/ 652.9/ 652.9/ 655.9/ 658.1/ 660.0
WIDM5 647.9/ 647.9/ 647.9/ 647.9/ 651.4/ 653.7/ 655.7
WNAM5 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 9.7/ 12.2/ 14.2
TREW3 641.5/ 641.5/ 641.5/ 641.6/ 644.1/ 645.9/ 647.5
LCRM5 634.2/ 634.2/ 634.2/ 634.4/ 637.9/ 639.8/ 641.1
LACW3 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.5/ 9.8/ 11.6/ 12.8
GENW3 624.9/ 624.9/ 624.9/ 625.0/ 629.0/ 631.0/ 632.0
LNSI4 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 10.7/ 12.9/ 14.3
LYNW3 616.9/ 616.9/ 616.9/ 617.0/ 620.6/ 623.2/ 624.5
MCGI4 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.9/ 13.2/ 16.8/ 18.2
GTTI4 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 9.1/ 12.1/ 14.9/ 15.8
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508271221/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
RCHM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMM5 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LNSM5 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:ROOT RIVER
HOUM5 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
BLFI4 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
DEHI4 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
DCHI4 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:TURKEY RIVER
SPLI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
EKDI4 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
GRBI4 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LKCM5 28.6/ 23.9/ 18.7/ 14.9/ 13.0/ 12.2/ 11.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WABM5 28.6/ 23.9/ 18.7/ 14.9/ 13.0/ 12.2/ 11.4
ALMW3 29.3/ 24.4/ 19.1/ 15.2/ 13.2/ 12.5/ 11.7
MSCM5 30.3/ 25.4/ 20.3/ 15.9/ 13.8/ 13.0/ 12.2
WIDM5 30.7/ 25.8/ 20.5/ 16.0/ 14.0/ 13.2/ 12.4
WNAM5 30.7/ 25.9/ 20.5/ 16.1/ 14.0/ 13.2/ 12.4
TREW3 32.2/ 26.8/ 21.4/ 16.6/ 14.6/ 13.7/ 12.8
LCRM5 34.6/ 28.9/ 22.5/ 17.6/ 15.4/ 14.3/ 13.5
LACW3 35.1/ 29.7/ 22.9/ 18.0/ 15.8/ 14.7/ 13.9
GENW3 36.4/ 31.6/ 24.1/ 19.0/ 16.7/ 15.5/ 14.7
LNSI4 37.5/ 33.2/ 24.8/ 19.7/ 17.2/ 16.1/ 15.3
LYNW3 37.7/ 33.5/ 25.1/ 19.9/ 17.4/ 16.2/ 15.4
MCGI4 42.0/ 35.1/ 26.4/ 20.6/ 17.6/ 16.4/ 15.7
GTTI4 48.9/ 42.2/ 32.8/ 25.8/ 23.1/ 21.5/ 20.2
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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