279
FGUS63 KMSR 271232
ESGM19
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM DUBUQUE..IOWA TO GREGORY LANDING..MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
731 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DLDI4 16.0 17.0 20.5 10 7 <5 5 <5 <5
DBQI4 17.0 18.0 21.5 12 8 6 6 <5 <5
BLVI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FLTI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 11 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
CMMI4 17.0 18.5 20.5 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LECI4 11.0 12.0 13.5 10 8 6 5 <5 <5
RCKI2 15.0 16.0 18.0 15 8 10 8 <5 <5
ILNI2 15.0 16.0 18.0 14 8 9 7 <5 <5
MUSI4 16.0 18.0 20.0 15 8 9 7 <5 <5
NBOI2 15.0 16.5 18.5 19 9 10 8 5 7
KHBI2 14.0 15.5 17.0 20 12 11 8 8 7
GLDI2 10.0 12.0 14.0 20 11 10 9 <5 6
BRLI4 15.0 16.5 18.0 14 11 10 10 7 6
EOKI4 16.0 17.5 19.0 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
GGYM7 15.0 18.0 25.0 20 11 9 10 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508271231/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DLDI4 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 8.4/ 12.0/ 15.9/ 16.9
DBQI4 9.6/ 9.6/ 9.6/ 10.6/ 13.8/ 17.7/ 18.7
BLVI4 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.2/ 9.2/ 12.6/ 15.9/ 16.8
FLTI2 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.0/ 9.1/ 12.9/ 16.2/ 17.6
CMMI4 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.5/ 11.4/ 13.8/ 16.7/ 18.1
LECI4 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.9/ 9.1/ 10.9/ 12.1
RCKI2 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 9.6/ 12.8/ 16.1/ 17.4
ILNI2 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.2/ 8.2/ 12.4/ 15.6/ 17.4
MUSI4 8.8/ 8.9/ 8.9/ 10.0/ 13.9/ 17.4/ 19.4
NBOI2 8.8/ 8.8/ 8.8/ 9.8/ 13.9/ 16.6/ 18.6
KHBI2 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 10.7/ 13.5/ 16.3/ 17.4
GLDI2 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 6.3/ 9.5/ 12.7/ 13.9
BRLI4 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.2/ 11.8/ 14.3/ 17.0/ 18.2
EOKI4 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.2/ 11.7/ 14.8/ 17.4
GGYM7 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 14.3/ 17.2/ 19.7
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0901 Z DH12 /DC2508271231/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/01/2025 - 11/30/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DLDI4 50.9/ 43.8/ 34.4/ 27.0/ 24.2/ 22.5/ 21.1
DBQI4 50.9/ 43.8/ 34.4/ 27.0/ 24.2/ 22.5/ 21.1
BLVI4 51.6/ 44.2/ 35.0/ 27.2/ 24.5/ 22.8/ 21.4
FLTI2 53.3/ 46.6/ 36.7/ 28.2/ 25.6/ 23.9/ 22.3
CMMI4 53.3/ 46.6/ 36.7/ 28.2/ 25.6/ 23.9/ 22.3
LECI4 54.6/ 48.2/ 38.0/ 29.0/ 26.4/ 24.6/ 23.1
RCKI2 61.9/ 53.9/ 41.8/ 33.2/ 29.0/ 26.8/ 25.1
ILNI2 65.1/ 55.5/ 43.4/ 34.2/ 29.9/ 27.6/ 25.9
MUSI4 65.1/ 55.5/ 43.4/ 34.2/ 29.9/ 27.6/ 25.9
NBOI2 65.2/ 55.7/ 43.5/ 34.3/ 30.0/ 27.6/ 25.9
KHBI2 73.2/ 61.0/ 47.4/ 38.7/ 32.9/ 30.9/ 28.4
GLDI2 73.7/ 61.1/ 47.4/ 38.8/ 32.9/ 30.9/ 28.4
BRLI4 73.9/ 61.3/ 47.8/ 39.0/ 33.1/ 31.0/ 28.5
EOKI4 77.2/ 62.5/ 49.7/ 36.5/ 29.3/ 26.5/ 24.9
GGYM7 82.8/ 66.4/ 52.3/ 38.7/ 31.4/ 28.7/ 26.7
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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