475
FGUS63 KMSR 221515
ESGSRS
SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1014 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:DES LACS RIVER
DESN8 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS RIVER
SHWN8 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FOXN8 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MINN8 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MION8 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LGNN8 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SWRN8 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VLVN8 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WINTERING RIVER
KLSN8 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS RIVER
TOWN8 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BANN8 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WILLOW CREEK
WLCN8 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS RIVER
WSTN8 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1027 Z DH12 /DC2510221514/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DES LACS RIVER
DESN8 1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.5/ 1640.5/ 1641.2
:SOURIS RIVER
SHWN8 1610.0/ 1610.0/ 1610.0/ 1610.0/ 1610.0/ 1610.0/ 1610.1
FOXN8 1569.9/ 1569.9/ 1569.9/ 1570.0/ 1570.2/ 1570.4/ 1570.6
MINN8 1552.8/ 1552.8/ 1552.9/ 1552.9/ 1553.1/ 1553.3/ 1553.4
MION8 1542.0/ 1542.0/ 1542.0/ 1542.1/ 1542.2/ 1542.3/ 1542.4
LGNN8 1524.4/ 1524.4/ 1524.5/ 1524.6/ 1524.8/ 1525.2/ 1525.5
SWRN8 1510.3/ 1510.3/ 1510.3/ 1510.4/ 1510.5/ 1510.8/ 1511.0
VLVN8 1493.2/ 1493.2/ 1493.2/ 1493.2/ 1493.5/ 1494.3/ 1494.9
:WINTERING RIVER
KLSN8 1504.3/ 1504.3/ 1504.3/ 1504.3/ 1504.3/ 1504.4/ 1505.8
:SOURIS RIVER
TOWN8 1449.4/ 1449.4/ 1449.4/ 1449.5/ 1449.7/ 1450.0/ 1450.2
BANN8 1434.9/ 1435.0/ 1435.0/ 1435.1/ 1435.3/ 1435.8/ 1436.0
:WILLOW CREEK
WLCN8 1437.1/ 1437.1/ 1437.1/ 1437.1/ 1437.1/ 1437.2/ 1437.3
:SOURIS RIVER
WSTN8 1411.2/ 1411.2/ 1411.2/ 1411.2/ 1411.3/ 1411.5/ 1411.9
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1027 Z DH12 /DC2510221514/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DES LACS RIVER
DESN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOURIS RIVER
SHWN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
FOXN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
MINN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
MION8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
LGNN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
SWRN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
VLVN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WINTERING RIVER
KLSN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOURIS RIVER
TOWN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
BANN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WILLOW CREEK
WLCN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOURIS RIVER
WSTN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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