516
FGUS63 KMSR 231131
ESGM19
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM DUBUQUE..IOWA TO GREGORY LANDING..MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DLDI4 16.0 17.0 20.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DBQI4 17.0 18.0 21.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLVI4 17.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FLTI2 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CMMI4 17.0 18.5 20.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LECI4 11.0 12.0 13.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
RCKI2 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ILNI2 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MUSI4 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NBOI2 15.0 16.5 18.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
KHBI2 14.0 15.5 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GLDI2 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
BRLI4 15.0 16.5 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
EOKI4 16.0 17.5 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GGYM7 15.0 18.0 25.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1027 Z DH12 /DC2510231131/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DLDI4 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 6.0/ 6.8/ 8.2/ 8.9
DBQI4 7.8/ 7.8/ 7.9/ 8.4/ 9.2/ 10.4/ 10.9
BLVI4 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.7/ 6.0/ 7.6/ 9.0/ 9.6
FLTI2 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 5.8/ 7.5/ 8.9/ 9.3
CMMI4 8.9/ 8.9/ 9.0/ 9.4/ 10.2/ 11.2/ 11.5
LECI4 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 5.2/ 6.0/ 6.8/ 7.3
RCKI2 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.9/ 6.2/ 8.0/ 9.3/ 10.7
ILNI2 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.9/ 6.3/ 7.7/ 9.7
MUSI4 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.3/ 6.9/ 7.9/ 9.5/ 11.3
NBOI2 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.1/ 5.5/ 7.6/ 9.2/ 11.3
KHBI2 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.9/ 7.2/ 9.0/ 10.5/ 12.0
GLDI2 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.7/ 2.7/ 4.2/ 5.9/ 7.9
BRLI4 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.1/ 8.7/ 10.2/ 11.4/ 13.0
EOKI4 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.9/ 4.9/ 6.0/ 7.7/ 9.8
GGYM7 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 6.8/ 7.6/ 10.8/ 12.1
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1027 Z DH12 /DC2510231131/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2025 - 01/25/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DLDI4 26.5/ 25.6/ 23.1/ 21.4/ 20.2/ 19.7/ 19.3
DBQI4 26.5/ 25.6/ 23.1/ 21.4/ 20.2/ 19.7/ 19.3
BLVI4 27.0/ 26.2/ 23.4/ 21.6/ 20.5/ 19.9/ 19.6
FLTI2 28.6/ 27.2/ 24.6/ 22.7/ 21.4/ 20.8/ 20.4
CMMI4 28.6/ 27.2/ 24.6/ 22.7/ 21.4/ 20.8/ 20.4
LECI4 29.6/ 28.0/ 25.4/ 23.4/ 22.1/ 21.5/ 21.2
RCKI2 33.9/ 32.7/ 28.3/ 25.8/ 24.2/ 23.2/ 23.1
ILNI2 34.8/ 33.8/ 29.4/ 26.6/ 25.0/ 23.9/ 23.7
MUSI4 34.8/ 33.8/ 29.4/ 26.6/ 25.0/ 23.9/ 23.7
NBOI2 34.8/ 33.8/ 29.4/ 26.7/ 25.1/ 23.9/ 23.7
KHBI2 37.8/ 36.8/ 33.6/ 29.5/ 27.6/ 26.1/ 25.6
GLDI2 37.8/ 36.9/ 33.6/ 29.5/ 27.6/ 26.1/ 25.6
BRLI4 38.0/ 37.0/ 33.8/ 29.6/ 27.7/ 26.2/ 25.7
EOKI4 38.6/ 36.8/ 31.0/ 26.5/ 24.8/ 23.0/ 22.4
GGYM7 40.5/ 38.9/ 33.6/ 28.5/ 26.9/ 25.1/ 24.5
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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