020
FGUS63 KMSR 222002
ESGSRS
SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
302 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2026 - 07/26/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:DES LACS RIVER
DESN8 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS RIVER
SHWN8 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
FOXN8 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 20 28 7 12 <5 <5
MINN8 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
MION8 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LGNN8 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 7 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
SWRN8 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VLVN8 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WINTERING RIVER
KLSN8 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOURIS RIVER
TOWN8 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 32 48 12 19 <5 <5
BANN8 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 33 50 19 36 <5 6
:WILLOW CREEK
WLCN8 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 20 40 9 12 <5 <5
:SOURIS RIVER
WSTN8 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 23 51 9 23 5 13
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0427 Z DH12 /DC2604222002/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2026 - 07/26/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DES LACS RIVER
DESN8 1640.2/ 1640.2/ 1640.2/ 1640.8/ 1642.4/ 1643.7/ 1645.1
:SOURIS RIVER
SHWN8 1609.7/ 1609.8/ 1610.0/ 1612.6/ 1617.2/ 1620.7/ 1621.3
FOXN8 1568.9/ 1569.2/ 1569.9/ 1570.8/ 1571.4/ 1575.7/ 1576.3
MINN8 1551.8/ 1552.1/ 1552.8/ 1554.2/ 1555.2/ 1558.6/ 1561.9
MION8 1541.6/ 1541.7/ 1542.0/ 1542.9/ 1543.6/ 1544.7/ 1546.3
LGNN8 1522.9/ 1523.2/ 1524.3/ 1526.7/ 1529.0/ 1533.1/ 1536.5
SWRN8 1509.2/ 1509.5/ 1510.4/ 1512.2/ 1515.2/ 1520.2/ 1522.6
VLVN8 1492.6/ 1492.9/ 1493.2/ 1496.4/ 1499.7/ 1505.8/ 1506.9
:WINTERING RIVER
KLSN8 1504.0/ 1504.0/ 1504.0/ 1504.3/ 1505.4/ 1507.9/ 1508.4
:SOURIS RIVER
TOWN8 1448.2/ 1448.9/ 1449.8/ 1452.8/ 1454.3/ 1456.3/ 1456.7
BANN8 1433.8/ 1434.4/ 1435.7/ 1438.8/ 1440.5/ 1442.0/ 1442.4
:WILLOW CREEK
WLCN8 1441.4/ 1441.4/ 1441.4/ 1441.4/ 1441.4/ 1445.5/ 1447.2
:SOURIS RIVER
WSTN8 1412.3/ 1412.3/ 1412.3/ 1412.6/ 1413.8/ 1417.1/ 1420.0
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0427 Z DH12 /DC2604222002/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2026 - 07/26/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DES LACS RIVER
DESN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOURIS RIVER
SHWN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
FOXN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
MINN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
MION8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
LGNN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
SWRN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
VLVN8 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:WINTERING RIVER
KLSN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOURIS RIVER
TOWN8 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
BANN8 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:WILLOW CREEK
WLCN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:SOURIS RIVER
WSTN8 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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