743
FGUS63 KMSR 271730
ESGM10
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 06/01/2026 - 08/30/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
RCHM5 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMM5 18.0 24.0 26.0 <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LNSM5 12.0 16.0 18.0 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUM5 15.0 17.0 18.0 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
BLFI4 12.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DEHI4 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DCHI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 18 22 9 10 6 7
:TURKEY RIVER
SPLI4 9.0 11.0 13.0 20 23 18 19 14 17
EKDI4 12.0 16.0 20.0 30 34 9 11 7 7
GRBI4 17.0 20.0 23.0 26 27 17 15 10 9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LKCM5 16.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WABM5 12.0 14.0 16.0 7 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALMW3 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MSCM5 660.0 662.0 665.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WIDM5 655.0 659.0 661.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
WNAM5 13.0 15.0 18.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
TREW3 647.0 649.0 651.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LCRM5 641.0 643.0 645.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LACW3 12.0 13.0 15.5 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
GENW3 631.0 634.0 636.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
LNSI4 17.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LYNW3 625.0 628.0 631.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MCGI4 16.0 19.0 22.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
GTTI4 15.0 18.0 21.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0601 Z DH12 /DC2605271730/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 06/01/2026 - 08/30/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
RCHM5 3.7/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 5.4/ 6.5/ 8.9/ 13.7
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMM5 5.8/ 6.0/ 7.0/ 9.2/ 11.9/ 14.1/ 17.9
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LNSM5 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 4.7/ 8.7/ 11.5/ 13.7
:ROOT RIVER
HOUM5 3.3/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 6.4/ 9.7/ 14.3/ 15.4
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
BLFI4 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.4/ 5.0/ 6.8/ 8.5/ 10.8
DEHI4 2.1/ 2.3/ 2.8/ 3.5/ 5.6/ 9.6/ 11.5
DCHI4 7.4/ 7.8/ 8.2/ 9.6/ 12.4/ 16.5/ 19.0
:TURKEY RIVER
SPLI4 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 4.6/ 6.4/ 15.4/ 19.9
EKDI4 5.5/ 5.8/ 7.0/ 9.4/ 12.6/ 15.1/ 24.6
GRBI4 7.4/ 7.7/ 9.3/ 12.2/ 17.1/ 22.2/ 27.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LKCM5 6.8/ 6.8/ 7.5/ 9.2/ 11.1/ 13.1/ 14.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WABM5 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.8/ 8.9/ 10.0/ 11.6/ 12.4
ALMW3 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.4/ 6.7/ 8.1/ 9.9/ 11.2
MSCM5 651.4/ 651.4/ 651.9/ 653.2/ 654.9/ 656.7/ 658.3
WIDM5 646.1/ 646.1/ 646.7/ 648.3/ 650.3/ 652.2/ 653.9
WNAM5 5.7/ 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.9/ 8.5/ 10.7/ 12.4
TREW3 640.2/ 640.2/ 640.7/ 641.8/ 643.3/ 644.7/ 646.0
LCRM5 632.4/ 632.4/ 633.0/ 634.6/ 636.6/ 638.1/ 639.6
LACW3 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 8.5/ 10.0/ 11.4
GENW3 622.5/ 622.5/ 623.3/ 625.4/ 627.4/ 629.3/ 630.8
LNSI4 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.2/ 8.6/ 9.6/ 10.9/ 12.1
LYNW3 614.8/ 614.8/ 615.6/ 617.2/ 619.2/ 620.7/ 622.4
MCGI4 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.7/ 10.1/ 12.2/ 14.3/ 15.7
GTTI4 6.2/ 6.2/ 7.1/ 9.4/ 11.3/ 13.0/ 13.9
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0601 Z DH12 /DC2605271730/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 06/01/2026 - 08/30/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
RCHM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMM5 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LNSM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:ROOT RIVER
HOUM5 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
BLFI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
DEHI4 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
DCHI4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
:TURKEY RIVER
SPLI4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
EKDI4 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2
GRBI4 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LKCM5 18.6/ 17.2/ 15.4/ 12.9/ 10.6/ 9.0/ 8.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WABM5 18.6/ 17.2/ 15.4/ 12.9/ 10.6/ 9.0/ 8.7
ALMW3 19.1/ 17.5/ 15.7/ 13.2/ 10.9/ 9.2/ 8.9
MSCM5 19.9/ 18.2/ 16.4/ 13.9/ 11.6/ 10.0/ 9.6
WIDM5 20.2/ 18.4/ 16.6/ 14.0/ 11.8/ 10.2/ 9.7
WNAM5 20.2/ 18.5/ 16.6/ 14.1/ 11.9/ 10.2/ 9.7
TREW3 21.1/ 19.0/ 17.2/ 14.6/ 12.4/ 10.7/ 10.2
LCRM5 22.3/ 20.2/ 18.1/ 15.4/ 13.0/ 11.3/ 10.8
LACW3 22.7/ 20.6/ 18.4/ 15.7/ 13.4/ 11.6/ 11.1
GENW3 24.0/ 21.7/ 19.4/ 16.7/ 14.2/ 12.6/ 11.9
LNSI4 25.2/ 22.6/ 20.1/ 17.4/ 14.9/ 13.3/ 12.6
LYNW3 25.5/ 22.8/ 20.3/ 17.6/ 15.0/ 13.5/ 12.7
MCGI4 26.7/ 23.0/ 21.1/ 17.8/ 15.1/ 13.7/ 12.9
GTTI4 33.2/ 29.5/ 26.9/ 23.3/ 20.0/ 18.3/ 17.3
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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