643
FGUS63 KMSR 241207
ESGMIS
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LOCK AND DAM 20 AT CANTON..MISSOURI
TO CHESTER..ILLINOIS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 09/28/2026 - 12/27/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANM7 15.0 20.0 25.0 12 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
LGRM7 17.0 23.0 25.0 10 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
UINI2 19.0 22.0 26.0 11 10 <5 7 <5 <5
QLDI2 18.0 21.0 25.0 10 9 <5 7 <5 <5
HNNM7 17.0 22.0 24.0 13 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
SVRM7 16.0 20.0 24.0 14 12 6 7 <5 <5
LUSM7 15.0 20.0 25.0 >95 20 <5 7 <5 <5
CLKM7 25.0 31.0 33.0 >95 21 <5 6 <5 <5
CAGM7 26.0 30.0 34.0 35 16 7 8 <5 <5
GRFI2 20.0 24.0 29.0 8 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALOI2 21.0 24.0 31.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ALNI2 21.0 29.0 34.0 18 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
EADM7 30.0 35.0 40.0 13 18 <5 7 <5 <5
HRCM7 26.0 32.0 37.0 18 19 6 8 <5 <5
CHSI2 27.0 35.0 40.0 21 21 6 12 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0928 Z DH12 /DC2609241207/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/28/2026 - 12/27/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANM7 14.3/ 14.3/ 14.3/ 14.3/ 14.3/ 16.1/ 17.3
LGRM7 15.2/ 15.2/ 15.2/ 15.2/ 15.2/ 17.0/ 18.2
UINI2 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 19.3/ 20.8
QLDI2 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 18.1/ 19.5
HNNM7 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 16.1/ 18.0/ 19.9
SVRM7 15.7/ 15.7/ 15.7/ 15.7/ 15.7/ 18.0/ 20.3
LUSM7 15.8/ 15.8/ 15.8/ 15.8/ 15.9/ 17.8/ 20.0
CLKM7 25.9/ 25.9/ 25.9/ 25.9/ 26.0/ 28.2/ 30.6
CAGM7 26.0/ 26.0/ 26.0/ 26.0/ 26.1/ 28.3/ 30.6
GRFI2 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.4/ 16.5/ 18.5/ 22.2
ALOI2 19.2/ 19.3/ 19.4/ 19.4/ 19.4/ 19.4/ 19.4
ALNI2 15.0/ 15.0/ 15.0/ 15.0/ 17.9/ 24.5/ 27.0
EADM7 15.3/ 15.3/ 15.3/ 15.4/ 21.4/ 31.4/ 34.7
HRCM7 13.5/ 13.5/ 13.5/ 13.6/ 19.4/ 29.2/ 32.4
CHSI2 17.5/ 17.5/ 17.5/ 17.7/ 22.4/ 33.8/ 35.5
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 0928 Z DH12 /DC2609241207/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW FLOWS (KCFS) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD: 09/28/2026 - 12/27/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANM7 61.6/ 53.6/ 43.7/ 39.9/ 33.9/ 29.9/ 29.4
UINI2 62.1/ 53.9/ 44.6/ 40.2/ 34.0/ 30.2/ 29.5
QLDI2 62.1/ 53.9/ 44.6/ 40.2/ 34.0/ 30.2/ 29.5
HNNM7 62.6/ 54.1/ 44.9/ 40.3/ 34.1/ 30.2/ 29.5
SVRM7 62.9/ 54.2/ 45.1/ 40.3/ 34.2/ 30.3/ 29.5
LUSM7 63.8/ 56.7/ 46.2/ 40.7/ 34.3/ 30.4/ 29.6
CLKM7 64.0/ 56.9/ 46.3/ 40.7/ 34.3/ 30.4/ 29.6
CAGM7 64.0/ 57.2/ 46.4/ 40.7/ 34.3/ 30.5/ 29.6
EADM7 136.9/ 119.5/ 87.9/ 79.4/ 70.2/ 65.7/ 62.2
CHSI2 143.1/ 130.0/ 94.4/ 81.7/ 72.4/ 66.8/ 63.1
.END
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF
:THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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