116
FXUS66 KMTR 151034
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
234 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST, TAPERING OFF
AFTER SUNRISE. COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH FREEZE WARNINGS AND
FROST ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR INTERIOR AREAS OF THE NORTH
BAY AND CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMING AND DRYING TREND ON TAP LATE NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
VERY SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SCOOTING DOWN THE COAST THIS
MORNING. DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG
COOLING ALOFT AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED PRETTY MUCH
RIGHT OVER THE STATE. NOT MUCH DOING OVERNIGHT WITH THESE SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. SO FAR, ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
THAT HAVE PULSED UP SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES IN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS ALIGNS THE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VECTOR WITH ONGOING STORM MOTION, AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES, INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AS THEY APPROACH THE MONTEREY BAY AND
CENTRAL COAST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. ALSO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
IF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA LUCIA SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW
THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND FAIRLY
COLD AIR IN PLACE. THE CHEWS RIDGE WEBCAM WILL BE A GOOD ONE TO LOOK
AT THIS MORNING, AS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS AROUND
50%. AFTER SUNRISE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY, GRADUALLY
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE,
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-TO-LATE
MORNING.
THE OTHER WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY FOR TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 8 AM SATURDAY. A COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE, AND WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 29-32F FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH BAY, THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY, AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. A
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA LUCIA HIGHLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 34-37F RANGE. THIS WILL BE AMONG THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, SO BE SURE TO THINK ABOUT
THE FOUR PS! IF YOU NEED A REMINDER, PEOPLE, PLANTS, PIPES, AND
PETS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE HAZARDOUS FOR VULNERABLE AND
UNHOUSED POPULATIONS, SENSITIVE PLANTS AND VEGETATION, AND PETS. WE
AREN'T EXPECTING A HARD FREEZE AT THIS POINT, SO INTERIOR PIPES
SHOULDN'T BE A HUGE WORRY. HOWEVER, EXPOSED OUTDOOR PIPES MAY FREEZE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
REALLY NICE AND COOL PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
FAIRLY QUIET WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES UP IN THE NORTH BAY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PNW. PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE CONFINED UP NORTH DURING THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS EXHIBITS GOOD CONFIDENCE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THIS COOL AND MOIST PATTERN. ONE CAVEAT TO THE
MOISTURE WILL BE TUESDAY WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'LL BE TOO IMPACTFUL
AT THE MOMENT. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DRY OUT TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY DURING
THE MORNING AND DAYTIME HOURS, BUT WE ARE NOT MESSAGING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER AT THIS TIME. THIS DRYING TREND IN NOTICEABLE IN THE
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT FORECAST FOR LIVE FUELS, BUT AS STATED,
THANKS TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WE ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW THE 60TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF FUEL
LOADING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO ONSHORE WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
OVER THE EPAC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND A BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
SUBTLE WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT'S GOING TO BE
NICE. STARTING THINKING ABOUT WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO DO OUTSIDE NEXT
WED-FRI. I SURE AM!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 PM PST THU NOV 14 2024
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS BUT SOME COASTAL TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, TEMPO GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS FOR KHAF AND KSNS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT VICINITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTH BAY IF WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS MOMENT. WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT TO
MODERATE BUT THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP WINDS BUILD TO
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 26 KNOTS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT VICINITY SHOWERS
IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LONG THE GUST WILL LAST, BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE PRETTY
BREEZY/STRONG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PREDOMINATELY VFR BUT MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LINGERED NEAR KSNS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN STRATUS WILL
LIFT, BUT EXPECT NEAR 08-09Z. BY MORNING VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND
BREEZY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
INCREASE TO BECOME STRONG BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS. SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT OF 13-16 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND
SEAS ABATE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM PST THU NOV 14 2024
MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SWELL WAVES 12-13 FEET
HIGH AT 12-14 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
11 AM SATURDAY DUE TO WAVES UP TO 12-15 FEET, UP TO 18 FEET ALONG
NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
KING TIDE SEASON IS HERE AND WILL BRING HIGH TIDES UP TO 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY - MONDAY. THE LATE MORNING TIDE CYCLE WILL BE
THE ONE TO WATCH, ESPECIALLY FOR EXPOSED OCEAN BEACHES WHEN HIGH
SURF COMBINES WITH THE KING TIDE. AREAS THAT TYPICALLY FLOOD DURING
KING TIDES WILL VERY LIKELY FLOOD WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TO
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE DAILY HIGHEST TIDES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
AT SAN FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AT 10:04 AM, WITH A HEIGHT
OF 6.95 FEET.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
CAZ504-506-516-518.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
CAZ517-528.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...RGASS
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