918
FXUS66 KMTR 161111
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
311 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 304 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TODAY. QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE WARMING TREND TROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL BUT UNCERTAIN RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
AND WINDS VERY LIGHT. SOME SMALL AREAS OF STRATUS ARE POPPING UP
ON SATELLITE ALONG SOME OF THE COASTAL TERRAIN (AND SEEN ON
WEBCAMS), BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING RIGHT ALONG WITH
THE FORECAST AS OF WRITING, SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED OVERNIGHT,
AND THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY WILL STAND UNTIL ITS
EXPIRATION AT 8 AM. TODAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL FALL-LIKE DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGH
TODAY, BUT ANOTHER TRANSIENT UPPER LOW APPROACHES THROUGH THE PNW
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, BUT THANKS TO ITS TRAJECTORY AND ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH BASE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTH AND INLAND FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WOULD PLACE MUCH OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST UNDER SOME DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, AS WELL AS THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...PROMOTING FURTHER SUBSIDENCE.
THEREFORE, ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES DEVELOP SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO
COME TO AN END FAIRLY ABRUPTLY MONDAY MORNING, LEAVING THE SECOND
HALF OF MONDAY ON THE DRIER SIDE AND MOSTLY CLEAR. IF YOU HAVE
SOMETHING IMPORTANT PLANNED MONDAY NIGHT, LIKE A CHAMPIONSHIP REC
SOFTBALL GAME, IT SHOULD BE DRY, BUT BUNDLE UP!! THIS COMBINATION
WILL AGAIN PROMOTE COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WHERE ADDITIONAL AND PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE HAZARD PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED. CURRENTLY EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S NEARLY ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG THE BAY SHORELINE IN THE LOWER 40S. ISOLATED AREAS IN THE
UPPER 20S IN INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST, THERE IS ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF SEEING LOW TEMPS BELOW
32F IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, 60-70% FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS AND
SAN BENITO COUNTY, AND 80-90% FOR THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE RESULTANT TROUGH
LINGERS OFF THE WEST COAST. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEK, BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR THE NORTH BAY AS THE BETTER JET
ENERGY LINGERS TO THE NORTH. IT ISN'T UNTIL AROUND FRIDAY THAT AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND SOCAL AND
INTERACTS WITH OUR SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THE NOT ONLY HELPS ADVECT
THE TROUGH EASTWARD, BUT ALSO INCREASES RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS WARM, MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM
SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL HIGH CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VFR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT WILL START TO REBUILD TO ONSHORE AND MODERATE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN TO LIGHT BY THE EVENING HOURS.
KHAF IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
VICINITY OF SFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH STRATUS MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL.
ONSHORE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONSHORE
WINDS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SPEEDS UP TO 10
KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS RETURN BY THE EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY IMPROVE SUNDAY WITH SEAS ABATING TO BECOME MODERATE AND
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES DIMINISHING TO BECOME MODERATE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE RETURN OF STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
MODERATE TO LARGE SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SWELL WAVES OF 12-15
FEET HIGH AT 12-15 SECONDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY DUE TO WAVES UP TO 12-15 FEET, UP TO 18
FEET ALONG NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
KING TIDE SEASON IS HERE AND WILL BRING HIGH TIDES UP TO 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY - MONDAY. THE LATE MORNING TIDE CYCLE WILL BE
THE ONE TO WATCH, ESPECIALLY FOR EXPOSED OCEAN BEACHES WHEN HIGH
SURF COMBINES WITH THE KING TIDE. AREAS THAT TYPICALLY FLOOD DURING
KING TIDES WILL VERY LIKELY FLOOD WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TO
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE DAILY HIGHEST TIDES. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
AT SAN FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT 10:43 AM, WITH A
HEIGHT OF 7.01 FEET.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ506-506-508.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ504-506-516-
518.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ517-528.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...RGASS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page