966
FXUS66 KMTR 151149
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
349 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 244 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
DRY WEATHER TODAY, A QUICK ROUND OF RAIN MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, AND FINALLY ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
CLEAR SKIES, COLD AIR, AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KICK START THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S FOR INTERIOR AREAS
WHILE THOSE ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THE
THERMOMETER READS DUE TO RESIDUAL DAMPNESS. THE COLDEST, SHELTERED
POCKETS MAY SEE BLACK ICE AS WELL. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
AND RUNS THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE INTERIOR NORTH BAY, EAST BAY
HILLS, EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS, AND INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES SO BE MINDFUL OF PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
AS WE WARM UP, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN ENTERS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH BAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
MONDAY'S WEATHER WILL COMPRISE OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WORKING ITS
WAY THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING US BENEFICIAL RAIN. LOOK FOR STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.50" IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY,
0.25-0.50" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, AROUND 0.25" FOR THE CITY OF
SAN FRANCISCO AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10" ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S BY MIDWEEK, AND THE LOW 70S MAKING A RETURN FOR THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ARRIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WET WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY; HOWEVER, IT'S TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 349 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
MIX OF LIFR (STS/SNS DUE TO FOG) AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF OAK AND APC WITH CONDITIONS SET TO
BECOME MVFR AT OAK WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. KEPT LOW CLOUDS REACHING
APC AROUND 14Z DUE TO NIGHT FOG SHOWING SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT
BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. FOR SFO AND OAK, SHOWERS START TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT WILL ARRIVE LATER, AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
FOR ALL OTHER SITES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
BY LATE TONIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CIGS WILL START TO
LOWER AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL INCREASE AS EARLY AS 12Z BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CONSISTENT LIGHT RAIN AFTER 15Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR AT MRY, LIFR BECOMING VFR BY LATE
MORNING AT SNS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND MOST OF THE
NIGHT AT SNS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING AT THE
AIRPORT. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AROUND 16Z WITH NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING CIGS INCREASING AFTER THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DID NOT PICK UP ON FOG DEVELOPING AT SNS
WHICH DECREASES TIMING CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. BY LATE MORNING, BOTH
MRY AND SNS WILL RETURN TO VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO RETURN BY THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS START TO LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL DECREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUING FOR SMALL CRAFTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
STARTING TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ504-506-
514>518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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