320
FXUS66 KMTR 160002
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
402 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM
ON TAP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
CHILLY TEMPERATURES, PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH BAY, HOWEVER THE AFTERNOON SUN IS HELPING TO STEADILY
DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE IT'S MAINLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR MID DECEMBER NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMING, SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IF
PLANNING MONDAY MORNING TRAVEL, COMMUTE TO WORK, ETC. LOWS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE 40S EXCEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND
VALLEYS, AND AS COLD AS THE LOWER 30S SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WITH PATCHY FROST FORMING. THERE MAY
ALSO BE LOCALIZED BLACK ICE FORMING ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES SINCE
BRIDGES USUALLY EASILY COOL TO SURROUNDING AIR TEMPERATURES. LATER
SHIFT(S) WILL REVISIT WHETHER OR NOT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY CLOUD LAYERS WILL INCREASE
WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING, EARLIEST AND FIRST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WITH RAIN THEN SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE AND
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BY
MIDWEEK, AND THE LOW 70S MAKING A RETURN FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WET WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY; HOWEVER,
IT'S TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
TULE FOG SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED CAUSING A MIX OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, AND SF BAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE, IT APPEARS VFR SHOULD RETURN WITHIN 20-21Z. OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH A POTENTIAL RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
WILL APPROACH SOME OF THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY NORTH BAY, EAST BAY
AND SF BAY TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR AS LOW CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPED, BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE NEAR 21Z. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING TIME, THEREFORE TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED IN
TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES
OVER OUR AREA, BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE TERMINAL.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS 18Z ON MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS MOMENT. EXPECT SOME VICINITY SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE TAF
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONTINUING FOR SMALL CRAFTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS, ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
STARTING TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
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