282
FXUS66 KMTR 160013
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
413 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM
ON TAP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
CHILLY TEMPERATURES, PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH BAY, HOWEVER THE AFTERNOON SUN IS HELPING TO STEADILY
DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE IT'S MAINLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR MID DECEMBER NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FORMING, SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IF
PLANNING MONDAY MORNING TRAVEL, COMMUTE TO WORK, ETC. LOWS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE 40S EXCEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND
VALLEYS, AND AS COLD AS THE LOWER 30S SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WITH PATCHY FROST FORMING. THERE MAY
ALSO BE LOCALIZED BLACK ICE FORMING ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES SINCE
BRIDGES USUALLY EASILY COOL TO SURROUNDING AIR TEMPERATURES. LATER
SHIFT(S) WILL REVISIT WHETHER OR NOT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OTHERWISE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY CLOUD LAYERS WILL INCREASE
WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING, EARLIEST AND FIRST OVER
THE NORTH BAY WITH RAIN THEN SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE AND
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BY
MIDWEEK, AND THE LOW 70S MAKING A RETURN FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
COAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. WET WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY; HOWEVER,
IT'S TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 403 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. DO HAVE SOME FOG
DEVELOPING AT KSTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20-30%). A WEAK FRONT
WILL LOWER CIGS/VIS AND INTRODUCE -RA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR - INITIALLY OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN PROGRESSING INTO SF
BAY IMPACTING MORNING RUSH AND THE CENTRAL COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE IT STARTS -RA IFR WILL MIX IN WITH MVFR
CATS...10-20% CHC FOR LIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE MONDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS. RAIN
ARRIVE SECOND HALF OF AM RUSH AND LINGERINGS INTO EARLY PART OF PM
RUSH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WET RUNWAYS WILL BE AN ISSUE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS AND
-RA ARRIVE AROUND 20Z MONDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PASSING FRONT WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT REYES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN STARTING TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING A
LONG PERIOD SWELL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS MIDWEEK CAUSING
INCREASED SHOALING ON HARBOR ENTRANCES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT
ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...CANEPA
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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