567
FXUS66 KMTR 161047
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
247 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
BENEFICIAL RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY,
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50-0.80" FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY REGION, AND CLOSER TO 0.25-0.5"
ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE BAY AREA, SANTA CRUZ, AND THE SANTA LUCIA
RANGES AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 0.25" OR LESS, WHILE THE THE
CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR AREAS CLOSER TO MEAGER A 0.10" OF RAIN OR
LESS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURING. THIS LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. UNSETTLED AND
WET WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO HONE ON
SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING, RAIN AMOUNTS, AND WIND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
CURRENTLY VFR WITH MOST SITES TRANSITIONING TO MVFR BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT STS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW (20-30%). A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND BRING WITH IT LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER
CIGS/VIS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CONDITIONS EXIST AS -RA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH EARLY TO MID MONDAY MORNING. MID
MONDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING MVFR
CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN. TEMPORARY POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
IF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT. CIGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS
GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE MONDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TO BECOME MVFR BY MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
WILL DECREASE MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS -RA
TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR CIGS PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT LOOK TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
06Z TOMORROW.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AFTER
THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARDS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT, GENERALLY NORTHERLY, WINDS RETURN
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE
MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CAUSING INCREASED SHOALING ON HARBOR
ENTRANCES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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