421
FXUS66 KMTR 161825
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1025 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
BENEFICIAL RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY,
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.50-0.80" FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY REGION, AND CLOSER TO 0.25-0.5"
ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE BAY AREA, SANTA CRUZ, AND THE SANTA LUCIA
RANGES AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 0.25" OR LESS, WHILE THE THE
CENTRAL COAST AND INTERIOR AREAS CLOSER TO MEAGER A 0.10" OF RAIN OR
LESS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND OCCURING. THIS LOOKS TO CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. UNSETTLED AND
WET WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO HONE ON
SPECIFICS SUCH AS TIMING, RAIN AMOUNTS, AND WIND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY, CREATING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS. THEREFORE, A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RAIN
SUBSIDES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BUT MODELS INDICATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH KSTS SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN N/NW OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT SOME TEMPORARY MOMENTS OF LOWER VISIBILITY (2-4SM) AS THE
RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER OVER THE TERMINAL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE
EVENING HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
OVERNIGHT AS SOME MODELS SHOW VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BUT CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR AS THE RAIN
MOVES CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER INTO THE NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARDS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT,
GENERALLY NORTHERLY, WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
INCREASED SHOALING ON HARBOR ENTRANCES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
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