729
FXUS66 KMTR 162127
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
127 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 126 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH THE EAST BAY AND SOUTH BAY INTO SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN BAND AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NORTH BAY. EXPECT THE MAIN RAIN BAND TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, WITH THE BAY AREA VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL COAST SEEING
AROUND 0.05-0.1" OF RAIN, WITH THE COASTAL AND INLAND RANGES SEEING
UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN (UP TO 0.4" IN THE SANTA LUCIAS) AND A FEW
SPRINKLES AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT IN THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE BAY AREA
VALLEYS, INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE SALINAS VALLEY AND THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 5O CLOSER TO THE COASTS AND BAYSHORE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER 70S, AND THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COASTAL
AND BAYSHORE. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT'S TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT EARLY INDICATIONS POINT TO IT NOT BEING AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE ONE LAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER, CPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH A LEAN TO PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS NORTH OF MONTEREY
BAY, CREATING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS. THEREFORE, A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RAIN
SUBSIDES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BUT MODELS INDICATE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH KSTS SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN N/NW OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT SOME TEMPORARY MOMENTS OF LOWER VISIBILITY (2-4SM) AS THE
RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER OVER THE TERMINAL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THE
EVENING HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
OVERNIGHT AS SOME MODELS SHOW VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BUT CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR AS THE RAIN
MOVES CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER INTO THE NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AFTER THE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARDS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT,
GENERALLY NORTHERLY, WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
INCREASED SHOALING ON HARBOR ENTRANCES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
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