458
FXUS66 KMTR 170551
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
951 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 126 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 828 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST 10:30 AM TUESDAY FOR
THE US-101 CORRIDOR IN SONOMA COUNTY BETWEEN HEALDSBURG AND
PENNGROVE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH DRIZZLE REMAINING POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE THE PERFECT ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG FORMATION IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH ADVECTION OF TULE FOG INTO THE EAST BAY INTERIOR
FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY REMAINING LIKELY.
SARMENT
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH THE EAST BAY AND SOUTH BAY INTO SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN BAND AS FAR NORTH AS
THE NORTH BAY. EXPECT THE MAIN RAIN BAND TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS INTO THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, WITH THE BAY AREA VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL COAST SEEING
AROUND 0.05-0.1" OF RAIN, WITH THE COASTAL AND INLAND RANGES SEEING
UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN (UP TO 0.4" IN THE SANTA LUCIAS) AND A FEW
SPRINKLES AT BEST IN THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY
OUT IN THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE BAY AREA
VALLEYS, INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR THE SALINAS VALLEY AND THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 5O CLOSER TO THE COASTS AND BAYSHORE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER 70S, AND THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COASTAL
AND BAYSHORE. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS LATER ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT'S TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT EARLY INDICATIONS POINT TO IT NOT BEING AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE ONE LAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER, CPC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES REMAIN LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH A LEAN TO PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 938 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
06Z TAF PACKAGE LOTS OF ADJUSTMENTS GIVEN RECENT OBS - SIMPLY PUT
MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN LAST TAF PACKAGE. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAD LED TO REDUCED VIS AND LOW CIGS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE
CLOUDS/FOG. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS AND RECENT OBS HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP THE LOWER CATEGORIES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS CURRENT GUIDANCE
STRUGGLES TO CAPTURE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...TOUGH FORECAST AS CIGS OVER THE BAY DRIFT OVER
THE TERMINAL. HAVE A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING
IMPACTS INTO TUESDAY AM RUSH.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 828 PM PST MON DEC 16 2024
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF POINT REYES. ELSEWHERE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE EAST PACIFIC. LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE MIDWEEK,
POTENTIALLY CAUSING INCREASED SHOALING ON HARBOR ENTRANCES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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