306
FXUS66 KMTR 212238
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
238 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 225 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER WEATHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM APPEARS THAT IT'LL ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND THUNDER THREAT,
VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 225 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. GRADUAL ASCENT ATOP A DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(MORE EVIDENT IN 850MB THETA-E FIELDS) WILL ENCOURAGE THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT
CURRENT TIME, IT'S ANTICIPATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
FROM ALONG THE GOLDEN GATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE DELTA. LOCATIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN (SANTA
CRUZ MOUNTAINS, EASTERN SANTA CLARA AND EAST BAY HILLS, AS WELL AS
THE SANTA LUCIAS). OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
SUNDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME BUST
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH, THEN THE AXIS OF
"HEAVIEST" RAINFALL WILL SHIFT WITH IT. IN ADDITION, IF THE DEPTH
OF MOISTURE IS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, WE'LL LIKELY BE
DEALING WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY FOG. AT
PRESENT TIME, THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES
IS AROUND 20-30% AND MAY BE MORE TIED TO BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WILL DEFER TO THE EVENING SHIFT FOR ANY
NEAR-TERM REFINEMENTS TO THE WX GRIDS, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE AT THIS TIME.
BY DAY BREAK, THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS. POPS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-70% AS MODEST ASCENT CONTINUES ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY APPEARS PALTRY AND THE GREATEST
MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG SUR COASTLINE. WITH THE GREATEST LIFT
REMAINING TO THE NORTH, I BELIEVE THE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
BE QUITE LOW ON SUNDAY, BUT SOMETHING WE'LL MONITOR. THERE WILL BE
A BREAK IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY MAY BE RAIN-FREE (WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE IN
HIGHER TERRAIN).
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 225 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
(SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
KEY MESSAGES:
*PARADE OF STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
*MOST IMPACTFUL STORM APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY
*RAIN AMOUNTS THRU NEXT SATURDAY 2-6" NORTH BAY | 1/2-3" BAY
AREA/CENTRAL COAST | UP TO 1/2" SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY
*WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ON TUESDAY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A +150 KNOT 300MB JET NOSES INTO THE AREA.
IN RESPONSE, SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL FALL. THESE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
SLIGHTLY SHARPER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY. THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY, OF COURSE, AND WITH A BULK OF THE STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT LIKELY TO REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH, THERE WILL BE A
SHARP POP GRADIENT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE
RECENT WET WEATHER LIKELY HAS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS VIA IT'S STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIAS CORRECT POPS.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING BEING DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE MORE DYNAMICAL, THOUGH
STILL ENSEMBLE BASED, NWP PAINT MORE OF A REASONABLE PICTURE FOR
WHAT IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
BAY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POPS STILL AROUND 80%. POPS TAPER DOWNWARD
DRAMATICALLY SOUTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY WITH POPS RANGING FROM
15% TO 50% ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE AROUND 10%). RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 11AM
SUNDAY AND 11AM MONDAY (WITH A BULK OF THIS FALLING LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY) RANGE BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
MAYBE 1/2 INCH (MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY). THERE'S AROUND A 50%
CHANCE THAT RAIN AMOUNTS AS GREAT AS 3/4 INCH TRANSPIRE ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY. ALL IN ALL, THE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ROUND OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS
IMPACTFUL THAN TUESDAY'S ANTICIPATED RAINFALL. CHECKING IN ON SOME
OF THE LOCAL HYDROLOGY, IT APPEARS THAT 1 AND EVEN 6 HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY SORT OF FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH QUICK RISES IN SMALLER CREEKS,
RIVERS, AND STREAMS MAY STILL BE IN PLAY. SPECIAL THANKS TO EKA
AND STO FOR THEIR COORDINATION ON THIS PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, OUR HIGHER IMPACT SYSTEM
ARRIVES. GLOBAL NWP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPER TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TAKING A LOOK
AT SOME MORE OF THE TRADITIONAL SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY INDICATES A
DEEP TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY 130 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. THE
UPPER TROUGH DOES EXHIBIT SOMEWHAT OF A POSITIVE TILT AND THIS
COULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THIS FEATURE STALLING. IT'LL STILL
PACK A PUNCH, HOWEVER, BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY, AS MOST OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST WILL BE WITHIN THE FAVORABLE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY TRANSLATE TO 25 TO 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HELP ENCOURAGE A LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES OF A PEAK GUST OR TWO ABOVE 35 MPH IS
AROUND 60-80% MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY,
EAST BAY, SF PENINSULA, SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, AND THE BIG SUR
COASTLINE/SANTA LUCIA'S. AT THIS TIME, I DON'T ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR A HIGH WIND WATCHES GIVEN EVEN OUR LOCAL WRF AND 90TH
PERCENTILE NBM HAS PEAK WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH ALONG THE
RIDGELINES (WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE GRID EDITS WERE FOCUSED).
IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE REALIZED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING THE LARGER POPULATIONS AREAS).
REGARDLESS, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR DECORATIONS WILL WANT TO MAKE SURE
THEY ARE SECURE BY TUESDAY, ELSE THEY MAY BECOME AIRBORNE WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
850MB THETA-E PROGS SHOW A RIBBON OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE
SURFACE/850MB FRONTS. THE PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE AT OR
ABOVE 200 J/KG IS MAXIMIZED AT AROUND 60-70% ACROSS THE BAY AREA
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR, I'LL
ADVERTISE A BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENCOMPASSES
ALL OF THE NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SF PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTH BAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF THUNDER WILL BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. WE WILL ALSO KEEP TABS ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SORT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS 500MB WINDS WILL
EXCEED 50 KNOTS AND LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE MODES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 1/4" ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTIES
UP TO AROUND 2 1/2" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THERE'S
AROUND A 40% CHANCE THAT 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXCEED 3"
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA CREEKS, RIVERS, AND
STREAMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. WHILE DETERMINISTIC AND
50-60TH PERCENTILE HYDROLOGIC OUTPUT KEEP MOST OF OUR MAINSTEM
RIVER POINTS IN MONITOR/ACTION STAGES, WE'LL NEED TO EXAMINE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MORE ROBUST/VIGOROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF
INSTABILITY IS A BIT GREATER AND/OR TRAINING ACTIVITY SETS UP, THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE. FOR NOW,
WE'LL FORGO ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH ON THIS SHIFT, BUT SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER, PARTICULARLY IF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY'S ROUND OF RAIN
OVERACHIEVES.
MOST OF CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE RAIN/FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HAZARDOUS BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE, HOWEVER, SO
IF HEADED TO THE BEACH, MAKE SURE YOU'RE AWARE OF ANY BEACH HAZARD
OR HIGH SURF CONCERNS. CHRISTMAS NIGHT IS WHEN OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENVELOPS THE AREA. POPS ARE
ON THE HIGHER END (60-80%), BUT THEY ARE RATHER BROAD-BRUSHED AS
THE NBM SOLUTION LIKELY REPRESENTS A RATHER BROAD RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES. IN FACT, SOME MODELS IN THE DAYS 7-8 TIME PERIOD
SHOW HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST (KEEPING STORM
SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA), WHILE OTHERS HAVE A SLIGHTLY
FLATTER RIDGE/MORE ZONAL FLOW (KEEPING THE STORM DOOR AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY AJAR). FOR NOW, WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF IVT STILL WARRANT MENTIONABLE
POPS IN THE EXTENDED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ARE
PROJECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, WITH UP TO 1 1/2" OF RAIN
ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY). STAY TUNE
FOR REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 959 AM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS CREATING SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS. THEREFORE, A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MODERATE SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH CHANCES OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR AS THE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS DIMINISH, BUT THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT VCSH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BUT CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR AS THE RAIN
MOVES CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL. EXPECT MVFR TO LINGER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 AM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME CALMER TODAY BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. CHANCES OF RAIN, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS, AND BUILDING SWELL ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT WAVES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE ELEVATED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENHANCED SHOALING AT HARBOR
ENTRANCES AND BARS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 111 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED SURF OF 20-25 FEET, WITH BREAKERS UP TO 30 FEET. A LONG
PERIOD, WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST INTO TUESDAY. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A MORE INTENSE ENERGETIC SWELL WITH 20+ FEET HEIGHTS AND
SWELL PERIODS OF 20+ SECONDS, THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER BREAKERS
(POSSIBLY 30-35 FEET) INCLUDING LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BAY,
OCEAN, AND BEACH CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-
530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BAIN
LONG TERM....BAIN
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
BEACHES...SO
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