232
FXUS66 KMTR 292130
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
130 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LEADING TO CHILLY MORNINGS
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A PATTERN CHANGE HAPPENS
FRIDAY, WITH WET WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE
BEST FOR THE NORTH BAY AND DECREASE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO WARM TODAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE THE SUN AT ALL TODAY, WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW WIND SHELTERED SPOTS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS DUE TO THE
LIKELY RETURNS OF LOW CLOUDS. THUS, WE WILL CANCEL THE FREEZE WATCH
THAT IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT COASTAL
AND FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE DRIZZLE, HOWEVER
THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW 10%.
TOMORROW, WITH THE FORECAST INLAND EXTENT TO THE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR LOW-TO-
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST WED JAN 29 2025
OMEGA BLOCKING LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES FLATTENED BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SHOULD BE ZONAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE TABLES FOR THE GEFS, NAEFS, AND ENS
HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND IVT OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" NOW, FAVORING MORE
MOISTURE OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS THE NORTH BAY FOR THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD GIVING THE
GREATER BAY AREA A BETTER SHOT WETTING RAIN. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST CHANCES DECREASE. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
FLUCTUATIONS IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HI-RES
MODELS WILL START TO CAPTURE THIS EVENT.
NEXT WEEK, ZONAL FLOW MOVES SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE REMAINS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY, SO EXPECT THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 940 AM PST WED JAN 29 2025
CLOUD COVER AND FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE AROUND THE MORE INLAND AREAS
BUT SOME OF THE COASTAL SITES WILL SEE CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LOWER CIGS MOVE INLAND IN THE EVENING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD INTO THE
LATE NIGHT. VISIBILITIES REDUCE AS MIST AND FOG FORM INTO THE LATE
NIGHT PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY. CLOUD COVER AND FOG BEGINS TO
ERODE LATE THURSDAY MORNING BUT CIGS COULD LINGER IN FAVORED SPOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING AS MODERATE WEST WINDS BUILD. VFR LASTS
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BEFORE MVFR CIGS FILL AROUND THE SF BAY. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE SCATTERING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SCATTERING AS MODERATE WEST WINDS BUILD. AS WINDS REDUCE INTO THE
EVENING, MVFR CIGS BUILD ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND, FILLING
OVER THE TERMINALS. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 821 AM PST WED JAN 29 2025
WINDS AND SEAS STAY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE
WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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