277
FXUS66 KMTR 300001
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
401 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LEADING TO CHILLY MORNINGS
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A PATTERN CHANGE HAPPENS
FRIDAY, WITH WET WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE
BEST FOR THE NORTH BAY AND DECREASE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO WARM TODAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE THE SUN AT ALL TODAY, WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW WIND SHELTERED SPOTS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS DUE TO THE
LIKELY RETURNS OF LOW CLOUDS. THUS, WE WILL CANCEL THE FREEZE WATCH
THAT IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT COASTAL
AND FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE DRIZZLE, HOWEVER
THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW 10%.
TOMORROW, WITH THE FORECAST INLAND EXTENT TO THE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR LOW-TO-
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST WED JAN 29 2025
OMEGA BLOCKING LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES FLATTENED BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SHOULD BE ZONAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE TABLES FOR THE GEFS, NAEFS, AND ENS
HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND IVT OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" NOW, FAVORING MORE
MOISTURE OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS THE NORTH BAY FOR THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD GIVING THE
GREATER BAY AREA A BETTER SHOT WETTING RAIN. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST CHANCES DECREASE. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
FLUCTUATIONS IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HI-RES
MODELS WILL START TO CAPTURE THIS EVENT.
NEXT WEEK, ZONAL FLOW MOVES SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE REMAINS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY, SO EXPECT THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 401 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS LOW STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING. THEREFORE, VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LOW CIGS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERMINALS AGAIN
TONIGHT BRINGING MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH BAY SEEING LIFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING TIME BUT MOST
MODELS SHOW VFR RETURNING AFTER 21-22Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS SEEING IMPROVEMENTS NEAR 18Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT ONSHORE MODERATE WINDS RETURN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT STRATUS IS SLOWLY
ERODING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING TO VFR IS EXPECTED NEAR 22-23Z. OVERALL
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS.
MVFR RETURN THIS EVENING WITH VFR RETURNING AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVER THE WATERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...MURDOCK
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