486
FXUS66 KMTR 300446
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
846 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LEADING TO CHILLY MORNINGS
AND MILD DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A PATTERN CHANGE HAPPENS
FRIDAY, WITH WET WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE
BEST FOR THE NORTH BAY AND DECREASE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO WARM TODAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
HANGING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE THE SUN AT ALL TODAY, WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE WILL BE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A FEW WIND SHELTERED SPOTS.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS DUE TO THE
LIKELY RETURNS OF LOW CLOUDS. THUS, WE WILL CANCEL THE FREEZE WATCH
THAT IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT COASTAL
AND FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE DRIZZLE, HOWEVER
THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW 10%.
TOMORROW, WITH THE FORECAST INLAND EXTENT TO THE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR LOW-TO-
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES F ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM PST WED JAN 29 2025
OMEGA BLOCKING LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES FLATTENED BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SHOULD BE ZONAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE TABLES FOR THE GEFS, NAEFS, AND ENS
HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND IVT OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" NOW, FAVORING MORE
MOISTURE OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS THE NORTH BAY FOR THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD GIVING THE
GREATER BAY AREA A BETTER SHOT WETTING RAIN. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST CHANCES DECREASE. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
FLUCTUATIONS IN TIMING AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HI-RES
MODELS WILL START TO CAPTURE THIS EVENT.
NEXT WEEK, ZONAL FLOW MOVES SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN THE AREAS
SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. THERE REMAINS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY, SO EXPECT THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 846 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS
LOW CIGS ARE SLOWLY REBUILD OVER THE TERMINALS BRINGING MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NORTH BAY SEEING LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CLEARING TIME BUT
MOST MODELS SHOW VFR RETURNING AFTER 21-22Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS SEEING IMPROVEMENTS NEAR 19-20Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS REBUILD TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CURRENTLY BUT STRATUS IS SLOWLY REBUILDING.
THEREFORE, EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR RETURNS
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON EXACT TIMING. ONSHORE WINDS TURN A BIT SOUTHERLY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. VFR
RETURNS AFTER 19-20Z. MODELS HINT AT MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM PST WED JAN 29 2025
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO STAY RELATIVELY CALM AND LIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE WATERS STARTING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO
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