572
FXUS66 KMTR 112125
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
225 PM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 224 PM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER SETS IN LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST, THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY HIGH SURF AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANTA LUCIA
COASTAL RANGE. SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, RAIN IS ON
TRACK TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE NORTH BAY. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE
PREFRONTAL RAIN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
RAIN AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WITH THE
MAIN FRONTAL BAND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THESE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE SHORT
IN DURATION, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 HOURS. URBAN FLOODING AND SHALLOW
LANDSLIDES IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND INLAND HILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS RAIN RATES REACH UP TO 0.5"/HR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED (10-15%) THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER AIR MASS DROPS INTO THE REGION MAKING
CONDITIONS MORE UNSTABLE. RAINFALL IN THE COASTAL RANGES WILL
APPROACH 2.00" AND 3.00" IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. HOWEVER, LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE RAIN SHADOWED VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
WHEN WE HAVE A 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND GUSTY WINDS. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BETWEEN 2,200 TO
3,000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND DOWN TO ABOUT 3,000 FEET ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST. THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN
EXPECT UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, IT WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE RAIN RETURNS OVER THE
NORTH BAY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE ANOTHER
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE RAIN CHANCES PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
WON'T BE AS HIGH AS THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM.
SATURDAY IS NOW LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER THE NORTH BAY. GREATER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO BE
SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR LASTS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE MODERATE WINDS ARRIVE. THESE WINDS EASE INTO THE NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION IN THE LATE NIGHT/ EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT NEARS, LOWER CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILD. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MEANS STS WILL SEE THE INCREASE IN WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
THIS INCREASE WONT ARRIVE TO AREAS LIKE LVK AND SNS UNTIL LATER INTO
THE MORNING. EXPECT MORE MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVIER RAINFALL TO
ARRIVE ALONG THE MAIN RAIN BAND, WHICH ARRIVES IN THE LATE MORNING
FOR THE NORTH BAY, AND THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH. IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASED RAIN RATES, STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL FLOW ALONG THE MAIN RAIN BAND.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR LASTS INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS LINGER INTO THE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND
BECOMING MORE MODERATE. THESE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE LATE NIGHT
AS MVFR CIGS BUILD INTO THE SF BAY. SHOWERS AND BREEZIER WINDS ARRIVE
EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASED RAIN RATES ALONG WITH STRONGER AND
GUSTIER WINDS AS THE MAIN RAIN BAND ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN BAND, BUT
REMAIN STRONG, HOWEVER RAIN RATES WILL REDUCE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. MODERATE WEST WINDS LOOK TO BUILD IN THE
MID AFTERNOON, BUT EASE IN THE EVENING. MOMENTS OF MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS IN THE EVENING TO EARLY NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO BUILD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BECOMING BREEZY BY THE MID MORNING AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
ARRIVE.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS AND WINDS LAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS EXPECTED AS IT PASSES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WHICH WOULD POSE THE RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND PEA SIZED
HAIL. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 420 AM PDT TUE MAR 11 2025
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS MODERATE PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS TO SUPPORT BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 15 FEET. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF
ROCKS AND JETTIES, KEEP PETS ON A LEASH, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN!
SARMENT
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-
10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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