330
FXUS66 KMTR 130527
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1027 PM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN,
STRONG WIND, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND SOME SNOW TO THE HIGHER
REGIONAL MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS ARRIVE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
THINGS REMAIN GENERALLY ON TRACK AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND IS
OFFSHORE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BAY
AREA MIDDAY, AND CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
IS ALONG THE MAIN BAND WHEN WE CAN SEE UP TO 0.50" PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A NARROW COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND
(NCFR) SHOWING UP OFFSHORE, SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS IS WHEN WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND WHEN WE ARE EXPECTING TO
SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, UP 70 MPH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND TYPICALLY WINDIER SPOTS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SETS IN ACROSS THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM, COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE 1.00-1.50", WITH 2.00-4.00" IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND THE
SANTA LUCIA RANGE. INLAND VALLEYS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 0.5-1.00",
WITH 1.00-2.00" IN THE INLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BETWEEN 2,200 TO 3,000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND DOWN TO ABOUT 3,000 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN EXPECT UP TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND MT. HAMILTON. RAIN/SHOW
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INLAND ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THIS SYSTEM WE ARE
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.50" IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 1.25" IN
THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY,
OTHER THAN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NORTH BAY.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH BAY AND WILL
CLEAR THE CENTRAL COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, PROVIDING
SIMILAR RAINFALL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, YET THE PATTERN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
THE MAIN FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TERMINALS
AND GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH DECREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR WITH
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DOMINATES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE (20-30% PROBABILITY) FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOCAL SMALL HAIL,
DIMINISHED VISIBILITY, AND STRONGER GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM, EXPECTED
TO IMPACT AFTER THE END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
(20-30% PROBABILITY) THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, DECREASED VISIBILITIES, AND
ENHANCED GUSTS IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS OVER THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE VFR WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
BREEZY AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS 20-30% PROBABILITY) THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, DECREASED
VISIBILITIES, AND ENHANCED GUSTS IF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE, VFR WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH. BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, SNS WILL SEE
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE MRY REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS CONTINUE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1156 AM PDT WED MAR 12 2025
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS MODERATE PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS TO SUPPORT BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 15 FEET. ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS SUNDAY. AS ALWAYS, PLEASE REMEMBER TO STAY OFF OF
ROCKS AND JETTIES, KEEP PETS ON A LEASH, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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