432
FXUS66 KMTR 132058
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
158 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SHOWERS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF NICE
DAYS AHEAD. MORE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE. RAINFALL FORECAST LOOKING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ASHORE AND BEGINS TO HINDER LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN ELONGATED WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING
PRECIP SCENARIO WHERE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY
BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTER
SUNRISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
RIDGING TAKES OVER THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE A
PRETTY NICE DAY! EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS NICE TOO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BOTH GREAT TIMES TO BE OUTSIDE. BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A MODEST
JET ALOFT AND DECENT MOISTURE TAP, CURRENTLY FORECAST ABOUT
150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
STALLING. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
PURELY BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS WITH LITTLE FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT BY MID-MONDAY, THEN THE STORY
REPEATS WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY BENEFICIAL ACTIVE PATTERN THAT
WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS CHANCES LASTING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
GUSTY WEST WINDS LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE LATE NIGHT AS THE NEXT RAIN SYSTEM
APPROACHES. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND MODERATE RAIN RATES CALLING FOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AS RAIN BECOMES
SPOTTY INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
EXITING BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS IN
THE MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE REDUCING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ARRIVES INTO THE NIGHT AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THESE
SOUTH WINDS BECOME THROUGH IN THE LATE NIGHT AS MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
ARRIVES ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AS CIGS LIFT AND WINDS TURN WEST AND REMAIN STRONG
AND GUSTY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXIT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS LASTING INTO THE LATE
EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT. STRONGER AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARRIVE IN THE LATE NIGHT WITH MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR CIGS. THESE
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES REDUCE AS
CIGS LIFT IN THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND REDUCE
SLIGHTLY BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS
CONTINUE, CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ516>518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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