722
FXUS66 KMTR 140445
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
945 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SHOWERS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF NICE
DAYS AHEAD. MORE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE. RAINFALL FORECAST LOOKING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH OBSERVATIONS
GENERALLY SPANNING THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS, 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED
IN WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH MORE TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ASHORE AND BEGINS TO HINDER LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN ELONGATED WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING
PRECIP SCENARIO WHERE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY
BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTER
SUNRISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
RIDGING TAKES OVER THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE A
PRETTY NICE DAY! EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS NICE TOO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BOTH GREAT TIMES TO BE OUTSIDE. BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A MODEST
JET ALOFT AND DECENT MOISTURE TAP, CURRENTLY FORECAST ABOUT
150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
STALLING. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
PURELY BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS WITH LITTLE FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT BY MID-MONDAY, THEN THE STORY
REPEATS WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY BENEFICIAL ACTIVE PATTERN THAT
WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN ARRIVING BETWEEN 08-09Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS INITIALLY START OUT
MORE WIDESPREAD BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS (GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z TO
00Z). WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING BEYOND THIS PERIOD, WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED.
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 33 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE
BETWEEN 00Z-03Z BUT IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN WINDS MAY DECREASE AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE. CONFIDENCE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THAT CIGS WOULD
BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (INCLUDING LAMP AND
NBM) SUPPORTING THIS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH WINDS
EASING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH STRONG,
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS
BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS
EARLY AS 23Z TO SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS RETURNING TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. ROUGH, HAZARDOUS, CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
ELEVATED SURF AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ516>518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page