441
FXUS66 KMTR 140526
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1026 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SHOWERS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF NICE
DAYS AHEAD. MORE RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE. RAINFALL FORECAST LOOKING MOSTLY BENEFICIAL OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH OBSERVATIONS
GENERALLY SPANNING THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS, 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE COAST. CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED
IN WHICH COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH MORE TEMPERATURES DROP TONIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ON THE DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES
ASHORE AND BEGINS TO HINDER LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BRING AN ELONGATED WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERRUNNING
PRECIP SCENARIO WHERE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY
BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE REGION. AFTER
SUNRISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
RIDGING TAKES OVER THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE A
PRETTY NICE DAY! EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS NICE TOO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. BOTH GREAT TIMES TO BE OUTSIDE. BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A MODEST
JET ALOFT AND DECENT MOISTURE TAP, CURRENTLY FORECAST ABOUT
150-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
STALLING. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
PURELY BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS WITH LITTLE FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED.
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OUT BY MID-MONDAY, THEN THE STORY
REPEATS WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR SYSTEM EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ALL IN ALL LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY BENEFICIAL ACTIVE PATTERN THAT
WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
STATIONS SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BUILD IN 09Z-12Z AS THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN ARRIVES WITH SHOWERS STARTING FIRST OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO BUILD IN
AFTER 09Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES.
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 18Z-22Z) WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AND SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. PERIODS OF DECREASED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH TEMPORARY DECREASES BELOW WHAT IS IN THE TAF
POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER RAIN MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITE.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS REACH SFO BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. GFSLAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO
37 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT GUSTS OF 30+ KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE, BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE EASING FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL REACH THE CENTRAL COAST AROUND 09Z TO 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND
DECREASES IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS START TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND LESS WIDESPREAD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM PDT THU MAR 13 2025
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS RETURNING TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. ROUGH, HAZARDOUS, CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS APPROACH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
ELEVATED SURF AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ516>518.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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