450
FXUS66 KMTR 142010
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
110 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD BEFORE MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EARLY HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL, BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING HAS
LARGELY VACATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW FLASHES
OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXISTS THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND COLD AIR
REMAINING ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT AND SEE PEEKS
OF SUN BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, EXPECT BREEZY
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
SATURDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WARMS US UP BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE MUCH MORE PALATABLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, SO ALL IN ALL EXPECTED TO BE A DECENT
DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
THE STORM DOOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A FEW CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A WONDERFUL
TIME TO BE OUTSIDE IF YOU'RE SOUTH OF THE SF BAY. NORTH OF THE BAY
WILL LIKELY BE SEEING THE START OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WIND AND RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TREND IN TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHING BACK A BIT LATER, SO
IF THE TIMING TREND HOLDS, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER WITH A
WEAK MOISTURE TAP, WHICH MEANS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WE ARE
EXPECTING AROUND 0.25"- 1", WITH A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN WILL START AS STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND
THE MODE SWITCHES TO CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 534 DM, THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE MOSTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, HAIL, AND THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE THE
LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR MOVING IN SIMULTANEOUSLY, WHICH WILL
WORK TO INHIBIT ALL OF THE PHENOMENA LISTED IN THE PREVIOUS
SENTENCE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. THE
CLEAR SKIES, COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY
START TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL
FLATTEN OUT A BIT, WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE MONTH CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
SHOWERS CHANCES LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING. BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST WINDS REDUCE INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE. MVFR CIGS LIFT INTO THE EVENING BUT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR.
VICINITY OF SFO...EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE REDUCING, BUT STILL REMAINING BREEZY. SHOWERS AND
LOWER CLOUD COVER EXITS INTO THE EVENING, BUT SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGER INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR EARLY SATURDAY, BUT WILL BECOME MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS AGAIN THAT AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...GUSTY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PASSING SHOWERS. CIGS RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE INT THE LATE EVENING AS
THE LAST FEW SHOWERS EXIT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
LATE NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY. ROUGH, HAZARDOUS, CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE
AREA, BRINGING WITH IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ELEVATED SURF AND FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....FLYNN/BEHRINGER
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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