828
FXUS66 KMTR 150006
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
506 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
NICE WEEKEND AHEAD BEFORE MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EARLY HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL, BUT STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING HAS
LARGELY VACATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW FLASHES
OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXISTS THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND COLD AIR
REMAINING ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT AND SEE PEEKS
OF SUN BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, EXPECT BREEZY
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
SATURDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WARMS US UP BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE MUCH MORE PALATABLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, SO ALL IN ALL EXPECTED TO BE A DECENT
DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
THE STORM DOOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A FEW CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A WONDERFUL
TIME TO BE OUTSIDE IF YOU'RE SOUTH OF THE SF BAY. NORTH OF THE BAY
WILL LIKELY BE SEEING THE START OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WIND AND RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TREND IN TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHING BACK A BIT LATER, SO
IF THE TIMING TREND HOLDS, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER WITH A
WEAK MOISTURE TAP, WHICH MEANS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WE ARE
EXPECTING AROUND 0.25"- 1", WITH A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN WILL START AS STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND
THE MODE SWITCHES TO CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 534 DM, THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE MOSTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, HAIL, AND THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE THE
LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR MOVING IN SIMULTANEOUSLY, WHICH WILL
WORK TO INHIBIT ALL OF THE PHENOMENA LISTED IN THE PREVIOUS
SENTENCE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. THE
CLEAR SKIES, COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY
START TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL
FLATTEN OUT A BIT, WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE MONTH CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE SET TO DISSIPATE BY
LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES. TEMPORARY
DECREASES IN VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITE BUT VISIBILITIES AND CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS THE STORM DEPARTS. WINDS WILL EASE AND BECOME
MORE LOCALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
VICINITY OF SFO...GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CIGS AND VIS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR BUT IF A STRONGER CELL MOVES OVER SFO VIS AND CIGS MAY
TEMPORARILY LOWER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 03Z WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED FROM 03Z TO 09Z. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE AIRPORTS AFTER 03Z SO KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS INSTEAD
OF -SHRA. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY DEVELOP AS STRONGER CELLS MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORTS BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE CELL MOVES
AWAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
EASING OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
GA FORCE GUSTS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
ROUGH, HAZARDOUS, CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH
IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ELEVATED SURF AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-SF
BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....FLYNN
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...MURDOCK
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page