155
FXUS66 KMTR 150552
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1052 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 854 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT MAINLY DRY, BREEZY AND COOL
BEHIND TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS. INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY BUT DRY
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE NORTH BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. COOL AND SHOWERY MONDAY. THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS NORTHWARD MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FORECAST THOUGH THE TAIL END OF OF ANY FRONTS COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SONOMA COUNTY MIDWEEK. THE PATTERN MAY TURN WET
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
BENEFICIAL RAINS TODAY WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LEFT ON
THE RADAR THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN TOTALS TODAY GENERALLY
0.25-0.75 WITH AN INCH FOR KENTFIELD. WATER-YEAR RAIN TOTALS NOW
RUNNING AROUND 138% FOR SANTA ROSA AND ROUGHLY 100 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR SF WITH 77 PON FOR SAN JOSE.
MAIN THEME FOR SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WEATHER BUT FAIRLY COOL TEMPS
FOR MID MARCH WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHEN
THE SUN PEAKS OUT IT'LL FEEL WARM. A NICE DAY FOR STORM CLEAN UP
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE BULK OF SUNDAY STAYS DRY BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ONE CAVEAT
WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTH BAY AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT STEADY RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE NORTH BAY AND DRY WEATHER HOLDING OFF THROUGH THE DAY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE ON SUNDAY. SO AFTER SOME UNSETTLED
BUT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NICE OVERALL.
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
COMMUTE ISSUES FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH WET ROADS.
MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO TRY AND REBUILD NEXT WEEK BUT STORM TRACK REMAINS
ACTIVE JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME HINT OF MORE RAIN CHANCES BY
NEXT WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONT THIS MORNING HAS
LARGELY VACATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW FLASHES
OF LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXISTS THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING AND COLD AIR
REMAINING ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT AND SEE PEEKS
OF SUN BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE RAIN, EXPECT BREEZY
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
SATURDAY AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WARMS US UP BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE MUCH MORE PALATABLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, SO ALL IN ALL EXPECTED TO BE A DECENT
DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
THE STORM DOOR REMAINS WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A FEW CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A WONDERFUL
TIME TO BE OUTSIDE IF YOU'RE SOUTH OF THE SF BAY. NORTH OF THE BAY
WILL LIKELY BE SEEING THE START OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING THE
REGION. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WIND AND RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TREND IN TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHING BACK A BIT LATER, SO
IF THE TIMING TREND HOLDS, MOST OF THE RAIN WILL ACTUALLY FALL
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER WITH A
WEAK MOISTURE TAP, WHICH MEANS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WE ARE
EXPECTING AROUND 0.25"- 1", WITH A LITTLE MORE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. THE RAIN WILL START AS STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND
THE MODE SWITCHES TO CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DROPPING BELOW 534 DM, THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE MOSTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, HAIL, AND THUNDERSTORMS. OF COURSE THE
LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR MOVING IN SIMULTANEOUSLY, WHICH WILL
WORK TO INHIBIT ALL OF THE PHENOMENA LISTED IN THE PREVIOUS
SENTENCE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT. THE
CLEAR SKIES, COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY
START TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL
FLATTEN OUT A BIT, WITH A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE MONTH CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL
COAST. CIGS AND VIS GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
TEMPORARY LOWER CIGS / VIS MAY DEVELOP IF A SHOWER MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER THE AIRPORT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY ON THE DOWNTREND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN
REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS IMPACTING STS/APC IS LOW.
VICINITY OF SFO...RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SFO
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE WEST WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF MRY AND SNS. WINDS HAVE EASED AND SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH LIGHT, AT TIMES VARIABLE, WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
GA FORCE GUSTS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
ROUGH, HAZARDOUS, CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH
IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ELEVATED SURF AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...RW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page