833
FXUS66 KMTR 150821
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
121 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
A BREAK IN THE RAIN TODAY BEFORE LIGHT RAIN COMES THROUGH THE REGION
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE STORM TRACK THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTH BAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TO
AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
PATCHWORK OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RADAR
RETURNS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY AREA, BUT THEY SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE INTO THE REST OF THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THEY CLEAR OUT SOON ENOUGH TO CAUSE
AIR TEMPERATURES TO DIP VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS IT STANDS,
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE BAYSHORE.
SHOULD THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE DAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FOR MOST OF THE REGION AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR, BRINGING A BREAK FORM THE
MULTIPLE RAIN SYSTEMS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE NORTH BAY COULD SEE
THE LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND, AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATING
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WHERE TERRAIN FACTORS FAVOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AT
THE PACIFIC COAST AND DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
THE STORM DOOR REMAINS OPEN... WITH A LITTLE TWIST. A NEW FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL START COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, STARTING WITH
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE BAND COMES
THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY. RAIN TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 0.5-1" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, WITH UP
TO 2" EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE MAYACAMAS, TO AROUND
0.25-0.5" IN THE BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY REGIONS, WITH UP TO 1" IN
THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAIN RANGES, AND 0.1-0.25" IN THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON SUNDAY,
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM ON SUNDAY FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY, WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40-
45 MILES PER HOUR. ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH BAY, AND IN THE COAST AND
RIDGELINES ACROSS THE BAY AREA, WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35-40 MILES
PER HOUR, AND DEPENDING ON HOW FORECAST TRENDS EVOLVE, THE WIND
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON MONDAY, THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BRINGING MOST OF THE IMPACTS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUS, A SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BRING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE NORTH BAY WITH UP TO A THIRD
OF AN INCH IN THE COASTAL RANGES, AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS (UP TO
0.2") IN THE VALLEYS AND BAY AREA AND VIRTUALLY NOTHING FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE HEADING TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE AT THIS POINT, ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TO THE GREATEST IMPACTS BEING CONFINED TO THE NORTH BAY.
THROUGHOUT ALL OF THIS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE INLAND BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST WARM TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE (MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S) ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN ON MONDAY,
BEFORE A MORE SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SETS
UP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK INTO THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
CPC OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A LEAN TOWARDS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES, INTO THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM PDT FRI MAR 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL
COAST. CIGS AND VIS GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
TEMPORARY LOWER CIGS / VIS MAY DEVELOP IF A SHOWER MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER THE AIRPORT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY ON THE DOWNTREND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN
REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS IMPACTING STS/APC IS LOW.
VICINITY OF SFO...RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF SFO
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE WEST WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF MRY AND SNS. WINDS HAVE EASED AND SHIFTED MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH LIGHT, AT TIMES VARIABLE, WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM PDT SAT MAR 15 2025
NW WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. ROUGH, HAZARDOUS, CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
APPROACH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH IT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SURF AND GUSTY WINDS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ502>504.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...RW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page